>Coup can happen before any widespread riots.<
not in my opinion.
............................
NK, Cuba, Saudi, Iran, Saddam-era-Iraq, Venezuela.
etc, etc.
have the scheme figured out.
...there are layers of —>families<— surrounding
the cenìer
center
You are entitled to your opinion, but NK system went through so much attrition. Many of these guardians of the regime are not up for their job. None of the example you mentioned went through massive famine, and its population eked out a living by rudimentary market place, only to see their little means of living ripped away from them.
Perhaps you have not tracked the sequence of deterioration since 2008 in N. Korea.
Last December, widespread riot was averted not by brutal crackdown but by the regime dumping money on population after severe backlash. All those money dumped would see it value collapse because the state cannot provide goods. There will be some development this year. Kim Jong-il would probably be in begging tour to China and summit with S. Korea. If it does not secure enough goods to stabilize rising inflation, things will really heading downward.
My guess at this point is that he could secure some and raise expectation among his population that more would be coming. It will buy him some time, but it will run out again. Because he won't give up nukes.
In the mean time, the rot of corruption would continue. People find other way to cheat the system.
People were pacified so far to the extent that the state let them make their living at the market and looked the other way. That is how the regime contained the fallout from famine. Now that it is taken away, and food supply is not getting better(actually could be worse due to some crop damage,) the coming spring would be the critical period.
To some superficial observer, things may look no different from last year or a decade ago. However, things do deteriorate continuously. We are in a period of high uncertainty. Things may look ok now, and Kim may look firmly in charge. However, his protective shells is not what it used to be, even though it may still look alright. In this stage, there is a high chance of freak accident finally cracking his protective shell.
It may give no forewarning.