Posted on 01/02/2010 7:07:32 AM PST by blam
2010 Market Could Be Greatest Bull Of Modern Age
by: Kevin Mulhern
January 02, 2010
Reading through most of the 'X Things That Will Happen in 2010' posts, it is clear that a lot of commentary is cautious going into the New Year. No question that the world still faces massive financial imbalances that could provide significant headwinds for growth over the next decade. Additionally, a blow up in an emerging market such as China could make the this decade worse than the one we just exited.
But if one can see through the fog of war that has permeated our collective consciousness over the previous three years, its possible to envision the next decade being one of immense economic, social, and technological progress. If you have any faith in mean reversion, you might be interested to know that the S&P has returned an average of -0.9% a year since 1999, including dividends (Bloomberg). Does anyone actually believe the commentators who suggest this disproves the long-run returns available in stocks?
The more probable scenario is that we have seen an abnormally poor period for equities that will revert towards a more historically normal performance record over the next decade. Here are some possible reasons for an historic bull market in the 2010's:
[snip]
Sounds like a lotta Bull.
Yes because the world is so stable right now. .s
New Years Resolution #1 - Stop smoking crack
May be wishful thinking on the part of someone who has made a living off of playing the stock market...may be. Then again, he could be right. My gut tells me we won’t see it though.
So, let me get this straight - the next decade could be great and it may be not.
The writer sounds more confused than anyone. And he needs to watch his typos, more than I do.
Plenty of funny money floating around to make it happen.
Yes, if voters around the world decide to dump the lot that’s in now, this could happen.
As it is, modern technological advances pull one way, while governments push in the other direction, producing a flat market.
Unfortunately, a loaf of bread will cost about the same as the DOW.
“Buy when everyone else is selling and hold until everyone else is buying. That’s not just a catchy slogan. It’s the very essence of successful investing.”
Jean Paul Getty (1892 – 1976)
Actually, the time to have bought was last March, during the height of the panic.
The great deception continues.
by: The Pragmatic Capitalist
January 02, 2010
Lumber prices continue to show signs of stability. This is certainly a positive sign for the housing market as lumber prices tend to have a very high correlation with housing prices. Although lumber futures have recently come off their highs the trend remains clear – up.
The latest data on lumber demand from Random Lengths also shows stability in demand as total production jumped 4% month over month:
[snip]
And demand is sooooo high with all the economic activity. The stimulus was soo successful that unemplyment.... global is still creeping up. ANd the new taxes? Just means more disposable income for savings and investment!
A bull market driven by inflation. Something ZerO will tout as an achievement.
SURE, right before it goes through the “f”ing floor!
I follow the lumber market closely, as it was the industry from which I recently retired after 35 years. Building products materials production is spotty, but it is better than the spring of last year. We are seeing a smidgen of capital spending on plant and equipment.
No one sees a return of the boom years of the mid-2000’s, at least not in the foreseeable future.
But there will be another housing bubble within the next twenty or thirty years. It always happens.
$9 Trillion in debt worldwide has to be rolled over in 2010. who is going to buy it?
Most of the $2.5 trillion the US will have roll over will be “bought” by the Fed. i.e. it will simply be newly printed money. That will work well.
~~Harvard Economic Society, May 17, 1930
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."
~~Ludwig Von Mises
HOPE (or another way to get your change..LOL)
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