Posted on 12/23/2009 10:28:11 PM PST by myknowledge
Iran recently conducted another successful test of its long range (2,000+ kilometers) solid fuel ballistic missile (the Sejil II). Apparently, Iran plans to build hundreds of Sejil IIs, and even longer range missiles, over the next six years. There are apparently also plans to build up the supply of mobile launchers for many of these, to make them even more difficult for anyone to spot, and destroy. Solid fuel missiles can be launched without preparation. This is critical, as the liquid fueled missiles take hours to prepare for launch, and spy satellites pass over Iran frequently enough to spot this. Iran is believed to have over a hundred older, liquid fueled missiles, and production of these will apparently cease. But in the meantime, Iran continues to build silos for its long range liquid fuel rockets, so they can be prepared for firing (fueled) without that being detected by satellites.
The Sejil IIs can reach Israel, and is not really a surprise, and Iran is known to be working towards a longer range missile that can reach Europe (an air freight shipment of parts for a North Korean missile with that kind of range, was recently intercepted in Thailand, before it could reach Iran). A year ago, Iran tested a new IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile) called the Sejil. This was a solid fuel missile. Two years ago, Iran had a failed test of a solid fuel ballistic missile it called "Ashura." The Sajil appeared to be the Ashura with a new name, and modifications that make it work. Even then, the big question was, who did they get the solid fuel manufacturing technology from? There are many potential vendors (North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, China, or even stolen from the West). The Ashura test failure last year involved some problem with the second stage, not with the solid fuel rocket motors. Iran has been manufacturing solid fuel for smaller rockets for over a decade, but had not yet developed the technology to build larger, and reliable, solid fuel rocket motors. Israel believes that Iran got the advanced solid fuel technology from Pakistan or North Korea.
For the last five years, Iran has been producing Shahab 3 IRBMs. This missile is basically 1960s technology, with the addition of GPS guidance. Russian and North Korean missile technology has been obtained to make the Shahab 3 work. This has resulted in a missile that apparently will function properly about 80 percent of the time, and deliver a warhead of about one ton, to a range of some 1,700 kilometers, to within a hundred meters of where it was aimed. By world standards, this is a pretty effective weapon. A solid fuel version of this missile would be, if the solid fuel was of reasonable quality, about ten percent more reliable than liquid fuel, and easier to hide and launch.
Iran has continued to refine the Shahab 3 design, and conduct test firings. Israel appears to be the main target. Iran has threatened Israel with destruction, rather openly and for several years. Shahab 3's could be fired with high explosive warheads, and hit, with enough accuracy, to kill mostly Jews, and not Israeli Arabs or Palestinians.
Israel has threatened to retaliate with nukes if Israel is hit with chemical or nuclear warheads. Israel has Arrow anti-missile systems that can stop Shahab 3s or Sejil IIs, but only a few at a time. If Iran launched a dozen or more Shahab 3s or Sejil IIs simultaneously, some would get through. If Iran had several hundred Sejil IIs, they could launch most of them at Israel, using high explosive warheads, and do a lot of damage. Israel could respond with its own Jericho II missile, but this system was designed for use with nuclear weapons, and Israel apparently only has 20-30 of them. Israel could respond with air strikes, and cruise missiles from submarines in the Persian Gulf or Indian Ocean. But, again, this would appear as a limited response to massive Iranian missile attacks. An Iranian attack with nuclear warheads would kill a large number of Moslems, and even radical Iran might be put off by that, because Israel would likely respond in kind.
A large number of IRBMs could also be used to intimidate nearby Arab countries, as these missiles could damage oil production facilities. If Iran gets nuclear weapons, it would take 5-10 years to develop the complex engineering required to create a nuclear warhead that would survive the stresses of missile launch, and detonate as intended over a distant target. Russia or China might provide such engineering secrets, but given the warlike pronouncements and radical politics of the Iranians, probably not.
Iran not only poses a threat to Israel, but also her Gulf Arab neighbors.
If the Sejjil-2 MRBM becomes operational and is deployed aboard truck TELs, it can strike not only Israel, but Gulf oil installations, crippling oil exports and skyrocket gas prices.
Israel and the Gulf Arab states now have a common enemy to deal with.
Iran like most mooslimb countries is sooo assbackwards and stupid I will be amazed if they dont blow themselves up.... with the few that remain blaming it on Israel. Seriously...they are morons.
Under-estimating the Iranians is not a good thing.
A dangerously ignorant and foolish attitude. The Persian people may be captive under Muslim sway today but they are are a highly intelligent and capable people, Snurple.
What you said.
I attended college with several Iranian and Iraqi students. They are very intelligent people, and we should not under-estimate then on any level. Doing so would place this country in peril.
Could these be launched from the deck of a cargo ship or a disguised oil tanker ?
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