Okay.
So the 60 thing is to shut off debate, or cloture. A majority is required to pass the bill and it’s not considered “nuclear”. If they’d shut off debate with 51 votes, that would have been Nuclear. If I understand you right....and this makes sense.
So Reid did get his cloture vote tonight, now he can go with 51 to pass it out of the senate.
After the recess it will go to conference and another cloture vote will be needed, 60, to shut off debate on the result from the conference committee, even if there is nothing from the conference.
You assert, and I think you’re right, that this cloture today was Harry’s high water mark; that beyond today is danger stuff.
So right now, here and on this public forum, I am going to make a prediction. I will justify my prediction as best I can and for sure arguments against are welcome.
Do NOT, I repeat, do NOT, bet money on my prediction. I’ve been wrong before although not all that often, insert wink here. But this health care vote has surprised me to no end with the ridiculousness of it, the audactiy of the politicos. Yeah, I know they’re rats but even so...
So I read from the Politico.com a casual, ho-hum, drop the word, that the health care bill might not be ready in time for the SOTU. But Obama, so the Politico with its direct line to the White House, states, really doesn’t care. The House, ho-hum, is likely to pass the senate bill like it is so Obama, ever more concerned about America and Americans, is content to move along and not seek glory in his very first SOTU.
Bullshit.
Please do not delete me. But no other word will do.
I predict that after the holidays this bill is going to die. It’s entirely too fragile. Americans, God love ‘em, have notorious short attention spans. But even now, with the holidays upon us, Americans have been paying attention to all this. We might not have been out doing Tea Parties in the snow, but try as they could to pass this in mid of night, it just hasn’t worked.
Obama’s ratings keep dropping, dropping.
That Ben Nelson, Landreau, outright bribes is not going to sit well with the American people and I watched that liar Claire McCaskill try to defend this on Fox this morning and I was amused watching her squirm. Then there’s that bit about not having any future congress change the thing. Finally, the abortion thing ain’t going to go down easily.
Americans are fair and just people. They’re not going to take it lightly that Florida senior gets to keep Medicare Advantage when us peons in Delaware gotta give it up. They’re sure not going to like Chris Dodd’s new hospital...that lying Chris Dodd whose about to go down in flames for God’s sake!
Americans are not going to like any notion that, boom, you can just put language in legislation that would effectively tie up any future generation. We are just not that stupid. That had to be a Rahm Emmanuel thing, so dumb.
Americans know you can use birth control and there’s no reason for us to go financing abortions. An abortion only costs about $600 bucks at a Planned Parenthood clinic, dear Lord, are there no limits? Cut off Medicare Advantage to a senior from Delaware but let Janie Slut use the public health plan for birth control?
I think it’s going down. Those guys are going home and they’re going to get an earful. Even in all our busyness this holiday season, Americans have been paying attention to all this.
Just need somebody to take Obama in a quiet padded room and tell him he’s got to forego his grand and magnificent SOTU of his dreams where he announced the formation of a public health care plan that will kill those needing killing, will care for our voters, will be for free and make the public beholding to us.
All with columns and fireworks and grand oratory, of course.
It’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
So the 60 thing is to shut off debate, or cloture. A majority is required to pass the bill and it’s not considered “nuclear”.
Yes. Reid just minutes ago secured his final 60 cloture vote to shut off debate. The 8 am vote tomorrow morning is for final passage, which means the RATS need only 51 votes. It will be interesting to see if any RATS jump ship. Nelson can't and Landrieu can"t... would make their prostitution look even worse. Webb is a possibility.
If they’d shut off debate with 51 votes, that would have been Nuclear.
Essentially, yes. The "nuclear" option, which would only require 51 votes, is by means of the budget reconciliation process. We don't need to go there -- at least for now.
After the recess it will go to conference and another cloture vote will be needed, 60, to shut off debate on the result from the conference committee,
Yes, absolutely, 60 will be required to end debate on what is called a "conference report." This is the important point that most people are missing: another cloture vote is required in the Senate on the confrence report. In the House, only a simple majority is needed to pass the conference report. In the Senate, Reid must secure 60 to shut off debate to the conference report. If he gets his cloture, then the Senate would consider final passage, which requires 51 to pass (simple majority)- and this includes a 50-50 tie, because Biden would obviously vote yes to break the tie.
even if there is nothing from the conference.
There is no vote or further debate if the conference is unsuccessful --- no votes are needed. The bill dies.
You assert, and I think you’re right, that this cloture today was Harry’s high water mark; that beyond today is danger stuff.
Yes, we hope. Here is the immediate danger: the Administration wants the House to simply take the Senate bill and pass it with a simple majority. In that scenario, the game would be over, because the Senate would never again have to deal with the bill. Fortunately, Pelosi has said no and it appears that the House is insisting on a conference. Stay tuned and pray that a conference is required to satisfy House members.