Precisely! I don't wish to needle Pelham any more, but plenty of folks come online today and describe in painstaking detail how the mess unfolded a year or more after the fact and hold themselves out as a junior Nostradamus or something.
If he had intel on the ground a few years ago and thought to himself, "Wow, this is unsustainable. I wonder how much higher it can go, and when it will fall," then kudos to him. He saw something many of us didn't.
But that doesn't mean it's prudent to follow the perpetual economic sourpusses whose opinion never changes moving forward. I personally would guess about a 10-15% return in the S&P 500 next year and GDP growth in the 4% range. (No thanks to you, Mr. President, it's simply U.S. resiliency.) Dollar likely continues a slow long term decline, but I don't think people who buy gold today when every other commercial on FNC is by a gold broker is going to be happy this time next year.
Yeah, the gold thing has me chuckling. I’m not a precious metals expert, but when every third commercial on TV and radio is yelling “buy buy buy!” it’s time to take a step back. And weren’t we just talking about unscrupulous mortgage brokers?
Gold is certainly in a bubble here and one sign is the ommipresent advertising. But gold is a risky market to play in because it’s relatively small and gold could still have a major spike up from here. The adage that a market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent is something shorts have to consider.
With near zero interest rates there’s no opportunity cost in holding gold. A strengthening dollar and a rise in interest rates would change that and maybe pop the gold bubble, but until there is some sign of that happening I’d leave gold alone.