” And actually I’m a prodigious consumer of the “business press” as a financial advisor.”
And you’ve already told us your excuse for not seeing the bubble.
“Wow that’s astounding hindsight you have there. For purposes of discussion, I’ll assume you were one such insightful person pre-crash and would have singlehandedly saved people trillions if only they’d followed your wisdom”
It’s hardly hindsight. I just paid attention to what was going on around me. I had customers who were mortgage brokers, I had a neighbor who was a mortgage broker, I had friends who were real estate agents. But most of what learned from them was also being reported in the press. I suspected we were in a bubble as early as 2003 when the affordability index for southern California fell below 18%, and of course prices escalated wildly from there. A bit of investigating led to how all of this was being funded. It doesn’t take rocket science to figure out that bad loans aren’t going to get better simply because they are bundled and tranched. When I heard one reporter say that the CDO market was in the trillions of dollars I knew we had a recipe for major trouble. There were analysts detailing what was going on, all you had to do was look for them.
“If you’re so certain, why don’t you buy a bear market fund right now, then let’s consult again in a year and see who’s the happiest?”
I may. I think the coming surprise will be the dollar strengthening.
Always admire a man willing to put his money where his mouth is. We shall see.