The Iranian Incursion in Context

This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR ^ | December 21, 2009 | George Friedman

[Tom D.]

The Iranian Incursion in Context

December 21, 2009

By George Friedman

A small number of Iranian troops entered Iraq, where they took control of an oil well and raised the Iranian flag Dec. 18. The Iranian-Iraqi border in this region is poorly defined and is contested, with the Iranians claiming this well is in Iranian territory not returned after the Iran-Iraq War. Such incidents have occurred in the past. Given that there were no casualties this time, it therefore would be easy to dismiss this incident, even though at about the same time an Iranian official claimed that Iraq owes Iran about $1 trillion in reparations for starting the Iran-Iraq War.

But what would be fairly trivial at another time and place is not trivial now.

Multiple sources have reported that Tehran ordered the incident. The Iranian government is aware that Washington has said the end of 2009 was to be the deadline for taking action against Iran over its nuclear program — and that according to a White House source, the United States could extend that deadline to Jan. 15, 2010. . .

"The Iranian move is deliberately designed to rattle U.S. President Barack Obama. He has shown a decision-making style that assumes that he is not under time pressure to make decisions. It is not clear to anyone what his decision-making style in a crisis will look like. Though not a prime consideration from the Iranian point of view, putting Obama in a position where he is psychologically unprepared for decisions in the timeframe they need to be made in is certainly an added benefit. Iran, of course, doesn’t know how effectively he might respond, but his approach to Afghanistan gives them another incentive to act sooner than later. . .

[Tom D.]

"The Iranian move is deliberately designed to rattle U.S. President Barack Obama. He has shown a decision-making style that assumes that he is not under time pressure to make decisions. It is not clear to anyone what his decision-making style in a crisis will look like. Though not a prime consideration from the Iranian point of view, putting Obama in a position where he is psychologically unprepared for decisions in the timeframe they need to be made in is certainly an added benefit. Iran, of course, doesn’t know how effectively he might respond, but his approach to Afghanistan gives them another incentive to act sooner than later."

This is a pretty interesting quote.

[tet68]

putting Obama in a position where he is psychologically unprepared for decisions in the timeframe they need to be made in

They think they can get inside the OODA loop.
Obama probably has never heard of it.

[AliVeritas]

Wait till the seventh day re: Montazeri and Ashura come around next week; They’ll have to divert and something, the people are fed up. They had to show respect even though he was out of favor, riled them up more.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkuiSkTQh7g&feature=channel

I hope they’re keeping an eye out.

[sionnsar]

putting Obama in a position where he is psychologically unprepared

Not very hard. Just take his Teleprompter away.

Expect a LOT more of same so long as The Zero remains on office.

[tet68]

It’s really too bad the Repub party can’t follow these
tactics, it seems they are on the outside of the loop.

[El Gato]

They think they can get inside the OODA loop.

I know they can.

[sionnsar]

IMHO the Republican Party is completely pwned by libs, aka RINOs.

[hennie pennie]

*ping*

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks hennie pennie. (re: the recent Iranian seizure of an Iraqi oil well)