Posted on 12/12/2009 9:13:51 AM PST by blam
Equities Update: Consumer Cheer Leads Stocks Higher
Midnight Trader
December 11, 2009
Stocks pulled out modest gains in Friday's regular session as traders were cheered by a set of economic datapoints that would suggest the beleaguered U.S. consumer is showing some signs of life. The Commerce Department said retail sales were up 1.3% in November, well ahead of Street expectations of a 0.7% rise and an indication that consumers are feeling slightly more comfortable with the economic outlook. Separately, the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index notched a solid move higher to 73.4 in December from 67.4 in November.
The rise in U.S. retail sales in November was the third increase in the past four months. Excluding the volatile autos category, sales rose 1.2%, the biggest gain since January.
Looking out to next week, the earnings calendar includes several issues likely to provide some directional influence for the markets. On Tuesday, Adobe (ADBE) and Best Buy (BBY) are slated to report results. Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) and Paychex (PAYX) are due with financials on Wednesday. Thursday will bring a host of top names posting numbers, including Accenture (ACN), FedEx (FDX), Nike (NKE), Oracle (ORCL), Palm (PALM) and Research In Motion (RIMM).
[snip]
Who ya gonna believe?
The Federal Government or
your own lyin' bottom line?
Rush mentioned part of the fudged equation was gas.
Consumer confidence making a comeback?
Just wait till all those job killing government regulations and taxes kick in.
You have that exactly right. The following link will show a chart of the % of the retail sectors month over month.
Gas is about 6% and appliances are about 3%.
Everything else is at 2% or under.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/12/about-those-strong-november-us-retail.html
Can’t trust those gubmit statistics these days AT ALL.
I like Tim.
The comments this time are even better than the article though. :)
And you certainly can’t trust what the GAO and other government accounting insitutions will say about Obamacare. They will lie because Obama and his flunkies will put the heat on.
Rush is correct. Breakdown of the data shows most of the increase came from gasoline purchases (people traveling more in November), but clothing, furniture, electronics retailer show decline in sales. This means Xmas sales will tank unless Dec numbers pickup. Sad part is MSM makes no distinction in the numbers and many investors will be surprised in Jan/Feb 2010 when the Xmas retail numbers come out.
If by some miracle the retail numbers show an increase over last year (not hard to do considering) I fully expect that increase to be a very very modest one indeed (if at all).
Meanwhile another year has gone by without a new oil rig in the gulf or off the coast of California. If and when the economy recovers the incredible increase in gas prices will choke any growth in the economy. The massive increase in gas prices was a major factor for the economic decline in the first place.
Most economists completely overlook the staggering cost of gas to the average commuter with a 30 to 50 mile one way commute for many in this country. The average American was stretched with large mortgage payments, two car payments and credit card debt. They filled their tank twice a week to make it to work, daycare, kids sporting events, etc... When they went from spending fity dollars a week to 150 a week for gas in a matter of a few months. They couldn't sustain the cash outlay. They simply started falling behind on their bills. First the credit cards, then the cars and sooner than expected the home. Couple that with readjusting home mortgages and the sudden inability to refinance and take cash out and abandoned and foreclosed homes naturally followed.
No new home sales, no real economic growth, real and sustained job losses.
Real unemployment is at 18% and growing. Close to one in five Americans are out of work or significantly underemployed. I expect large segments of the retail sector to be shuttered by mid January.
such garbage spin. yet retailers tax revenue to irs is down 13% acording to the irs so dont know how this is even remotely possible
This is known as the law of unintended consequences.
Is that 13% down from this time last year? 13% from last year would be a lot!
2010 onward will be interesting. Many companies have laid people off in 2008 and thru 2009. There is no one left to layoff in many companies. Many corporations became profitable that way. This reflects in their quarterly reports and the commercial bond market where they are able to raise money in lieu of bank loans. Most of the seasonable increased demands are being met by a temporary work force, with the understanding that the workers will be laid off once Xmas season is over.
If retail profits are reasonable, then some of the temps will be hired as full time. If Xmas retail sales do not improve or go south, then all the temps will be laid off. Add to the misery a number of retailers will go out of business. A report just came out this morning that lists the companies that may not survive 2010. The track record of this report has been very accurate. Listed are Border Bookstores, Newsweek Magazine, Palm (the company that makes PDA’s), JC Penny’s are some of the well known companies listed.
In the meantime I have stockpiled food, ammo, have firearms and tactical gear/accessories, and precious metals for possible chaos to come. There is still time to prepare because the Feds and Wall Street were able to hatch financial schemes to delay the financial crisis. It is our blessing that they did, because it gives us time to prepare. If you have not done this by now, here is the breathing room and time to do so.
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