Posted on 12/12/2009 5:44:55 AM PST by Bulwinkle
[..how to hide the Medieval Warm period!]
One way would be to note that the temperature amplitude (1000 – 1950) for each is ~1.5°C. Thus you could conclude that hemispheric/global climate varied ay over a degree Celcius (although with regional differences)
Another way would be to average the records. The resulting temperature amplitude would be smaller because extremes would cancel since variability is large and each region’s extremes occur at different times.
Thus, if people simply looked at several records they would get the impression that temperature variations were large, ~1.5°C. Imagine their surprise when they see that the ensemble averages you publish have much smaller amplitude.
(Excerpt) Read more at climate-gate.org ...
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| From The Vitamin Press |
Nice find.
This was particularly illuminating: “But, just replying that lack of synchronous events (sometimes by a few
decades) is the reason might not be enough. It seems to me that we must go one step further. We must address the question: what forcings can generate large amplitude temperature variations over hundreds of years, regional though they may be (and, could these occur at different
times in different regions due to shifting heat inertia patterns)? If we can’t do this, then there might be something wrong with our rationale that the average is low amplitude even though many regions see high amplitude. This may be the nubbin of the disagreement, and until we answer it, many careful scientists will decide the issue is
still unsettled and that indeed climate in the past may well have varied as much or more than in the last hundred years.”
This guy is essentially saying (in 2001) that reasonable people can reach different conclusions about the available evidence and how to interpret it. It is far from settled science! I don’t pretend to understand the technical details of this debate, but to my knowledge there have been no advances have been made to address the question that the writer says is essential to address. An Inconvenient Truth came out in 2006, but obviously was filmed before that year (at a time that Al Gore had already been doing his mendacious dog-and-pony show before gullible audiences for years). Thus, Gore was preaching this is “settled science” even as scientists who supported AGW theory were acknowledging it was reasonable for careful scientists to question the theory in light of the evidence.
“Is the noticeable increase in surfers off Scripps Beach a possible indication of global warming?”
While this tagline was tongue in cheek (I hope!), it’s not too far off some of the “science” they use... ;-)
This is the only yelling (all caps) in the document. This says to me that Keller is simply looking for an excuse, any excuse, to call the slight amount of warming in the 20th century "Human Caused Global Warming", while the larger warming of previous centuries is natural. This is hardly the confident expressions of settled science. It is the insecure ramblings of an adolescent looking for an excuse for not having his homework done.
Hey "Chick", MIGHT THE NON UNIFORMITY OF THE PROXY DATA INDICATE THAT YOUR PROXY DATA IS NO GOOD?
It’s like every day they woke up, went into work, and then sat around saying, “how can we fool people today?”
Why of course. It proves that Global Warming is killing all the sharks that eat surfers. It's settled science.
hmmm... FR auto deletes emails????
Interesting that most of the “TO” list is U.S:
From: Chick Keller ckucsd.edu
To: “Michael E Mann” virginia.edu,
rbradley geo.umass.edu
“Phil Jones” uea.ac.uk
k.briffa uea.ac.uk
tom crowley ocean.tamu.edu
Overpeck u.arizona.edu
Tom Wigley ucar.edu
Mike MacCracken usgcrp.gov
I belive I found the Paper they might have used that in:
In Science Magazine
LETTERS
The Scope of Medieval Warming
Raymond S. Bradley, Keith R. Briffa, Thomas J. Crowley, Malcolm K. Hughes, Philip D. Jones, and Michael E. Mann (15 June 2001)
Science 292 (5524), 2011b. [DOI: 10.1126/science.292.5524.2011b]
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