How wrong can one be? A history of fear-mongering without substance(What? No global warming)

http://kestencgreen.com/green&armstrong-agw-analogies.pdf?wwparam=1260383354 ^ | 12/8/09 | Kesten C. Green

[bestintxas]

A fascinating new paper comparing global warmism to past scares concludes this one is much like the rest - just as dodgy and just as likely to peter out. It’s the work of South Australian academic Dr Kesten C. Green and American forecasting expert J. Scott Armstrong: We summarize evidence showing that the global warming alarm movement has more of the character of a political movement than that of a scientific controversy. We then make forecasts of the effects and outcomes of this movement using a structured analysis of analogous situations—a method that has been shown to produce accurate forecasts for conflict situations… We searched the literature and asked diverse experts to identify phenomena that could be characterized as alarms warning of future disasters that were endorsed by scientists, politicians, and the media, and that were accompanied by calls for strong action. The search yielded 71 possible analogies. We examined objective accounts to screen the possible analogies and found that 26 met all criteria. We coded each for forecasting procedures used, the accuracy of the forecasts, the types of actions called for, and the effects of actions implemented. Our preliminary findings are that analogous alarms were presented as “scientific,” but none were based on scientific forecasting procedures. Every alarming forecast proved to be false; the predicted adverse effects either did not occur or were minor. Costly government policies remained in place long after the predicted disasters failed to materialize. The government policies failed to prevent ill effects… The structured analogies approach suggests that the current global warming alarm is simply the latest example of a common social phenomenon: an alarm based on unscientific forecasts of a calamity. We conclude that the global warming alarm will fade, but not before much additional harm is done by governments and individuals making inferior

[bestintxas]

Read and find out how consistently wrong the alarmists have been over the past century.(see exhibit 1)

How can they continue to have ANY credibility?

[steelyourfaith]

 

Beam me to Planet Gore !

[Yo-Yo]

But was this paper peer reviewed by the CRU?

[colorado tanker]

How can they continue to have ANY credibility?

Because it's not about science, but about politics and the religion of radical environmentalism.

[henkster]

The more I think about it, “ozone depletion” was the template or “trial balloon” created to see if they could ram this through. It was just as phony.

I’m trying to think of all the phony scares I can recall living through:

1970’s: coming ice age
1970’s: “China Syndrome” nuclear accidents
1980’s: Nuclear Winter (funny how the cold scare plays out after this)
1980’s: Radon gas (they still suck money out of you when you try to sell your house. What a scam).
1980’s: Acid rain
1980’s-1990’s: Deforestation
1990’s: Toxic mold
1990’s: Ozone Depletion
1990’s-2000’s: Global warming

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

***I’m trying to think of all the phony scares I can recall living through:***

How about the RED SCARE of the 1960s?

Unfortunatly, the students of that age are now in charge in Washington!

[henkster]

They didn’t scare me! Hey, I was four or five at the time. I don’t recall it.

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

***They didn’t scare me! Hey, I was four or five at the time. I don’t recall it.***

Do they scare you now? They are in control of the White House!