In most events like this, it is easy to look back on it and find puzzle pieces you can put together and come to this conclusion. It is much harder, however, to do this in real time without the blessing of hindsight. Just like those who say we should have known 9/11 was going to happen, at the time it was unimaginable, but after the fact we can see what evidence points to it going to take place.
It is like trying to put together a puzzle without having the picture of what it should look like.
I agree. It’s a matter of “Duh, what do you think they were up to.” But back then, America hadn’t been attacked for a really, really long time. Plus, whodathunk Japan would want to fight us when they could go on conquering little nothings.
As for provoking them, that’s what nations do. We throw their weight around, and when other nations don’t respond as they thought they would, we throw up our arms and say, “Who me? But what did I do? Oh yeah, but I didn’t mean it. Jeez, you’re a jerk.”