Maybe I misread a story this week that said he wasn’t going to run, even if the charges were going to be dropped. The comparisons to Vitter and Ensign are a bit different, however. Vitter wasn’t harmed by his personal indiscretions, but Ensign, conversely, has approval ratings not too dissimilar to Reid’s now, one reason I don’t expect him to run again. Of course, Jim Gibbons is refusing to stand aside as Governor, and he is more unpopular than Reid (even Rory would beat Gibbons one-on-one), so you never know. I say keep Krolicki as Lt Governor and if Ensign refuses to stand aside (a la Gibbons) we run him in the primary.
Flimsy résumés or not, either Lowden or Tarkanian will beat Reid, and I don’t want to see some brutal three-way primary that could potentially harm us for the general. At the moment, I’m leaning towards Tarkanian, so I wouldn’t necessarily feel bad if Lowden switched to running for another statewide office (such as Sec of State). We also need a strong recruit to take out Reid’s flunky, Atty Gen Catherine Cortez Masto, but I don’t think either Lowden or Tarkanian have law credentials to do so.
I think that the odds of Lowden or Tarkanian blowing it against Reid is substantially higher than for Krolicki to lose to Reid, and beating Reid is a lot more important in both the sbort- and long-term than having someone ready to run against Ensign in a hypothetical Senate primary 3 years from now, especially since Lowden or Tarkanian could well be the sitting Lt. Gov. I would be shocked if both Lowden and Tarkanian stayed in the Senate race if Krolicki runs, and would not be surprised if both ran for Lt. Gov. or some other high office (Angle would likely stay in, though).
Reid is the bird in hand, and we have to run our strongest possible candidate against him.