“Note that temps have been falling since 1998 and didn’t follow the sunspot”peak” in your graph.”
They’ve not monotonically fallen. At any rate, solar forcing isn’t the only factor (1998 was a strong El Nino year in particular), however it’s clear that the weakest solar minimums have forced temperatures several degrees lower historically. That’s enough to swamp any claimed increase from AGW (and far more than enough to swamp any real increase, based on Lord Monckton’s latest release).
We’ll see. :-)
I don't believe the effects are direct, or immediate. You have to look at long-term trends. This long, deep solar minimum is part of a long term trend. From the link:
A 50-year low in solar wind pressure: Measurements by the Ulysses spacecraft reveal a 20% drop in solar wind pressure since the mid-1990s—the lowest point since such measurements began in the 1960s.