Physicist Howard Hayden's one-letter disproof of global warming claims [pre-Climategate]

Mises Economic Blog ^ | 10/29/2009 | Stephan Kinsella

[sionnsar]

Physicist Howard Hayden, a staunch advocate of sound energy policy, sent me a copy of his letter to the EPA about global warming. The text is also appended below, with permission.

As noted in my post Access to Energy, Hayden helped the late, great Petr Beckmann found the dissident physics journal Galilean Electrodynamics (brochures and further Beckmann info here; further dissident physics links). Hayden later began to publish his own pro-energy newsletter, The Energy Advocate, following in the footsteps of Beckmann's own journal Access to Energy

I love Hayden's email sign-off, "People will do anything to save the world ... except take a course in science." Here's the letter:

***

Howard C. Hayden
785 S. McCoy Drive
Pueblo West, CO 81007

October 27, 2009

The Honorable Lisa P. Jackson, Administrator
Environmental Protection Agency
1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW Washington, DC 20460

Dear Administrator Jackson:

I write in regard to the Proposed Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act, Proposed Rule, 74 Fed. Reg. 18,886 (Apr. 24, 2009), the so-called "Endangerment Finding."

It has been often said that the "science is settled" on the issue of CO2 and climate. Let me put this claim to rest with a simple one-letter proof that it is false.

The letter is s, the one that changes model into models. If the science were settled, there would be precisely one model, and it would be in agreement with measurements.

Alternatively, one may ask which one of the twenty-some models settled the science so that all the rest could be discarded along with the research funds that have kept those models alive.

We can take this further. Not a single climate model predicted the current cooling phase. If the science were settled, the model (singular) would have predicted it.

Let me next address the horror story that we are approaching (or have passed) a "tipping point." Anybody who has worked with amplifiers knows about tipping points. The output "goes to the rail." Not only that, but it stays there. That's the official worry coming from the likes of James Hansen (of NASA­GISS) and Al Gore.

But therein lies the proof that we are nowhere near a tipping point. The earth, it seems, has seen times when the CO2 concentration was up to 8,000 ppm, and that did not lead to a tipping point. If it did, we would not be here talking about it. In fact, seen on the long scale, the CO2 concentration in the present cycle of glacials (ca. 200 ppm) and interglacials (ca. 300-400 ppm) is lower than it has been for the last 300 million years.

Global-warming alarmists tell us that the rising CO2 concentration is (A) anthropogenic and (B) leading to global warming.

(A) CO2 concentration has risen and fallen in the past with no help from mankind. The present rise began in the 1700s, long before humans could have made a meaningful contribution. Alarmists have failed to ask, let alone answer, what the CO2 level would be today if we had never burned any fuels. They simply assume that it would be the "pre-industrial" value.

• The solubility of CO2 in water decreases as water warms, and increases as water cools. The warming of the earth since the Little Ice Age has thus caused the oceans to emit CO2 into the atmosphere.
  

(B) The first principle of causality is that the cause has to come before the effect. The historical record shows that climate changes precede CO2 changes. How, then, can one conclude that CO2 is responsible for the current warming?

Nobody doubts that CO2 has some greenhouse effect, and nobody doubts that CO2 concentration is increasing. But what would we have to fear if CO2 and temperature actually increased?

• A warmer world is a better world. Look at weather-related death rates in winter and in summer, and the case is overwhelming that warmer is better.
  
• The higher the CO2 levels, the more vibrant is the biosphere, as numerous experiments in greenhouses have shown. But a quick trip to the museum can make that case in spades. Those huge dinosaurs could not exist anywhere on the earth today because the land is not productive enough. CO2 is plant food, pure and simple.
  
• CO2 is not pollution by any reasonable definition.
  

• A warmer world begets more precipitation.
  
• All computer models predict a smaller temperature gradient between the poles and the equator. Necessarily, this would mean fewer and less violent storms.
  
• The melting point of ice is 0 ºC in Antarctica, just as it is everywhere else. The highest recorded temperature at the South Pole is -14 ºC, and the lowest is -117 ºC. How, pray, will a putative few degrees of warming melt all the ice and inundate Florida, as is claimed by the warming alarmists?
  

Consider the change in vocabulary that has occurred. The term global warming has given way to the term climate change, because the former is not supported by the data. The latter term, climate change, admits of all kinds of illogical attributions. If it warms up, that's climate change. If it cools down, ditto. Any change whatsoever can be said by alarmists to be proof of climate change.

In a way, we have been here before. Lord Kelvin "proved" that the earth could not possibly be as old as the geologists said. He "proved" it using the conservation of energy. What he didn't know was that nuclear energy, not gravitation, provides the internal heat of the sun and the earth.

Similarly, the global-warming alarmists have "proved" that CO2 causes global warming.

Except when it doesn't.

To put it fairly but bluntly, the global-warming alarmists have relied on a pathetic version of science in which computer models take precedence over data, and numerical averages of computer outputs are believed to be able to predict the future climate. It would be a travesty if the EPA were to countenance such nonsense.

Best Regards,

Howard C. Hayden

Professor Emeritus of Physics, UConn

[TigersEye]

Brought to you by the letter 'S.'

LOL

[jonno]

bump

[maine-iac7]

The sun today - still no sunspots

I'm not getting my hopes up on these Cretans being stopped -they are determined. Total control and power and more billions are just as the end of their grasping hands. They will not back off volutarily.

There have been several documentaries and exposures by REAL scientists on this criminal hoax.

They were brushed aside by the Goracles and the media - and WE THE PEOPLE didn't bestir ourselves to demand they be listened to. Thereby, WE THE PEOPLE are complicit.

It will go nowhere again unless we ALL shout and be heard and demand WAshington reverse this hoax.

We've been given the amunition, now let's use it.We'll not get another chance in time.

[PugetSoundSoldier]

Big deal, we can ignore this letter. After all, he’s just a physicist, not a Climatologist!

[Psycho_Bunny]

I've always been interested in having someone explain why the Earth didn't end up like Venus. The "greenhouse gasses" of water vapor and CO2 were completely out of control in the early atmosphere....CO2 being upwards of 10%.

Yet today, it isn't 600 degrees on the Earth.

Even still, "scientists" are screaming that we're all going to die from CO2 in the range of 0.0387%.

[Las Vegas Ron]

To put it fairly but bluntly, the global-warming alarmists have relied on a pathetic version of science in which computer models take precedence over data, and numerical averages of computer outputs are believed to be able to predict the future climate.

In case anyone missed this, it's not getting much attention:

http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/11/crus_source_code_climategate_r.html

[Bhoy]

Thanks for keeper

[sionnsar]

In case anyone missed this, it's not getting much attention:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/11/crus_source_code_climategate_r.html

Interesting.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Related thread:

Australia carbon emissions law hit by opposition revolt

****************************************

And was just looking at the Aussie website that has much good stuff:

Australia still hangs in the carbon trading twilight zone

********************************EXCERPT**********************************************

The Australian situation tonight: Today the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) decision was successfully delayed by questions until Monday. That’s good news, but there’s no Champers popping yet. The longer we wait, the longer the real story of the fraud has to filter through to our representatives, but this is a race to overcome two decades of propaganda in one weekend.

This week will be written up in history books. Late yesterday a parliamentary mutiny occurred as opposition cabinet members abandoned their leader. Three on Monday: Mitch Fifield, Brett Mason and Mathias Cormann. Then Thursday: six more, and on Friday Concetta Fierravanti-Wells all quit their appointed shadow positions. Senate offices are apparently being swamped with emails. The message it seems, is getting through. (Thanks to all of you who have sent emails, I been copied in on many, please keep them coming ).

Senator Fierravanti-Wells had been expected to back the ETS laws but has now indicated she will vote against the bill.

‘I acknowledge the avalanche of correspondence and feedback conveyed to me from a wide cross-section of the community, most especially after the decision of the joint party room to amend and support the legislation,’ she said.

Senator Fierravanti-Wells, who is facing a Senate preselection ballot on December 12, indicated she was heeding the view of the NSW Liberal base of the party, which was strongly against the ETS decision.

‘In all my years of involvement in the party, I have never seen such an extraordinary reaction,’ she said. [link]

The left leaning Labor Government needs just 7 votes to get the Legislation through the Senate.

The left leaning Labor Government needs just 7 votes to get the Legislation through the Senate. The Leader of the Opposition – Malcolm Turnbull, appears determined to deliver those votes, no matter what his party say or what scandalous information  is exposed.  On Tuesday, he survived a leadership spill, then listened as more than half the members of his own party spoke against the ETS. Through accounting tricks that the East Anglia CRU would be proud of, he announced the opposition supported the ETS. Despite the arrogant bullying, on that day, it looked to Reuters like the Australian ETS was a done-deal, but the anger and fury within the conservatives was ignited. Turnbull staked his leadership on the line in October, and it’s now almost guaranteed that he will lose that role.

[Las Vegas Ron]

There was a thread here on this story a day or two ago, I'm surprised it hasn't received more discussion.

To me it is just as if not more damning than the emails

[maine-iac7]

Where has everyone been?

There have been a plethora of reports on the criminal phoniness of GoreBull warming -

I had a whole list of them and posted and posted and emailed and emailed and no one ever responded. So a few months ago, I deleted the list and decided to put the time into things that WILL be heard...and will help - like organizing “Boxes for the Troops”

But here, if anyone really gives a hoot, other than cluck clucking, is one of the shorter and better exposes = done 2 1/2 years ago.

I hope some of you will pass this along, realizing this is our last and very short window to stop this insanity - and save our freedom.
http://www.garagetv.be/video-galerij/blancostemrecht/The_Great_Global_Warming_Swindle_Documentary_Film.aspx

But if you're really interested in saving this country, our way of living and our freedoms, you can simply GOOGLE “global warming hoax swindle” and you'll see how much has been reported to debunk the Goracles - but it has not done one thing to stop the headlong rush to dominance.

I hope you will take the time to look at these ...for your own sake...and ACT.

How about we all mail the link to the video I posted here - to Beck, Rush, Hannity, O’Reilly et al?
g beck glennbeck@foxnews.com

hannity@foxnews.com

oreilly@foxnews.com

rush@eibnet.com

[sionnsar]

I think you've put your finger on it -- it's the closing of the window, coupled with the Climategate release creating a new opportunity to derail it.

It's not like there wasn't interest -- when TGGWS documentary came out I recall there was interest. For whatever reason (I have forgotten it) a local FReeper burned copies of the DVDs and made them available, gratis, to other FReepers. (This included me -- his house is probably only some hundreds of meters from mine, but it was a 7 mile drive around.)

[maine-iac7]

And Ed Begley, Jr. is ONLY a goofy actor who thinks he’s a scientist

Begley is an ignorant buffoon with anger problems. Now, his problems are exacerbated as he sees his livelihood endangered

A two-bit actor, he's been supporting himself with his TV series about his 'green' home. I watched it a couple times - and I do not see how his wife tolerates him.

[maine-iac7]

WE have to demand that the republicans get behind Inhofe and REVOLT and DEMAND like the Aussies - NOW - before Copenhagen

[Lancey Howard]

That's an excellent letter, but totally beside the point.

The "global warming" hoaxers are well aware that they are perpetrating a hoax. Professor Hayden is not telling the mice at the EPA anything they don't already know. The EPA and the communists who currently occupy the executive branch in the Ubama Administration share the same agenda as the UN. They do not care what people like Professor Hayden have to say. The "global warming" hoax is nothing more than a means to an end.

As James M. Taylor, senior fellow for The Heartland Institute, explained, "It is not surprising the UN has completely rejected dissenting voices. They have been doing this for years. The censorship of scientists is necessary to promote their political agenda. After the science reversed on the alarmist crowd, they claimed 'the debate is over' to serve their wealth redistribution agenda."

It's all about global socialism, not global warming. And that means the redistribution of America's wealth to every third-world pisspot on the planet.

[tubebender]

BUMP FOR LATER

[MHGinTN]

Placemarker

[sionnsar]

The "global warming" hoaxers are well aware that they are perpetrating a hoax. Professor Hayden is not telling the mice at the EPA anything they don't already know.

I don't think that the EPA was the real audience for this letter; that's just the foil for a much wider distribution. An engineer or scientist would know about the effects of positive feedback, for example, and yet look how carefully generally he describes it.

Look at the effect just on FReepers who've posted on this thread. HERE is something short, succinct and understandable that I can pass on to non-technical friends and folks (and lawmakers!) who might be disinclined to watch even a 15-minute documentary.

[Lancey Howard]

Good points.

And great post!

[tarator]

I'm not getting my hopes up on these Cretans being stopped -they are determined.

The inhabitants of Crete have nothing to do with this. But these cretins will be stopped. The truth always wins in the end.