I think there’s a lot of ignorance about how these things proceed and about the nature of politics in general. You have to know some of the histories of some of these people. For example, Dorgan comes from a conservative state. His governor is very popular and his term is expiring. There’s talk about his running against Dorgan next year. As it is, Dorgan polls behind the governor of N.D. How do you think he’s going to vote once cloture comes up, knowing he’ll get clobbered in an election if he votes for the bill? He might commit political suicide—but it’s not likely. Bayh is another from a very conservative state. So is Lincoln and so is Pryor. So is Ben Nelson. There’s a lot going on behind the scenes—this is far from a done deal—or an easy one. Check intrade. Last I looked, probability of passage was down to 3.9%.
I totally agree. There is a lot of local politics being at stake here in many states and districts.