Exactly!
The other event that it doesn't account for is increasingly that balkanization is breaking down into geographical regions. Not to say that there aren't conservatives everywhere and vice versa, but the mix is becoming less even. We really are down to very few "moderate" Pubs in the northeast, rust belt and left coast.
sounds much like that Russian economist (?) predicted.
When I first saw the prediction of the breakup of the USA I thought that guy was nuts. As time passes it doesn't seem so crazy. The radical leftists don't understand that there is a sizable number of us who will not live under the tyranny of a fascist regime.
But like you, I suspect before the final collapse Obama and his gang are working towards some states will attempt to get off the ride.
I think it will be pursued in peaceful ways. Through the courts and through legislation. I think it will be a longer process then just during the 0 admn. I think we are at the front end of this and it may be as long as 30-50 yrs with some ebb and flow but I don't see a USA remaining united.
I had the exact same reaction...but like you, it no longer looks like the musings of a complete nutcase. I highly doubt he had the breakdown correct, but predicting the breakup itself when he did would be notable. Hopefully America wakes up and better and more adult heads get put into power. There may be some who bluster about who owns the guns, or who is better prepared for chaos, but the fact is, that chaos would be very ugly for all involved.