Can the Clinton Coalition Survive Obama? - (Uplifting)

Real Clear Politics ^ | November 13, 2009 | Sean Trende

[re_tail20]

John Judis and Ruy Teixeira's well-regarded 2002 work The Emerging Democratic Majority begins with a vignette set in Virginia. They tell the story of a telecom executive named Mark Warner, who runs a moderate campaign that appeals to upper-middle class suburbanites and working class rural voters, and manages to put together a winning coalition that, if imitated in other states, might put the Democrats in power for decades to come.

Democrats did build coalitions similar to Warner’s, and in fact had been doing so for the better part of a decade. Warner’s coalition was essentially Bill Clinton’s 1996 coalition. The coalition and brand that Clinton built was an extraordinarily successful one for Democrats, breaking the momentum of a resurgent GOP in 1996, and ultimately enabling the election of the most liberal President in American History last year.

Given this background, it’s only appropriate that the first tangible sign that this coalition is coming unglued has come in Virginia. Republican Bob McDonnell won the governorship with almost 59% of the vote – the highest percentage (though not the highest victory margin) for any governor since 1961. The entire Republican ticket won by similar margins, and the GOP picked up six seats in the General Assembly. It could have been even worse – five Democrats won their Assembly races by fewer than 1,000 votes.

There are some superficial lessons to be drawn here. After last week's election, it's silly to argue that the GOP brand is too damaged for them to take advantage of Democratic weakness. And the Democrats' latest spin – that their weakness among Independents was simply a function of more Republicans calling themselves independents but retaining their Republican voting habits – puts the lie to the argument that Republicans' low self-identification is a salient factor in elections.

[Senator Goldwater]

The Clinton Coalition couldn’t even survive last Tuesday.

[2banana]

“You can only elect the first black president once...”

Yep - the “magic” is gone. Now he is just a corrupt, socialist, tax increasing, grow government monster...

[hoosier hick]

Note to browsers:

If you don’t read the entire article, at least study the maps. They are very interesting....

hh

[1776 Reborn]

Time is a passing, and many of the new voters were too young to really remember Clinton, good or bad........

[goldstategop]

Clinton successfully rebranded the Democrats as a middle of the road party committed to less intrusive government, fiscal responsibility and personal responsibility. That achievement is in danger of becoming undone under Obama. The Democrats prefer big government, deficit spending and a blame America outlook for the country's situation. And moderate suburbanites who moved to Clinton and supported the Democrats since are recoiling from and fleeing the party. The Democrats could hold their coalition together by returning to the Clinton formula but they can't or won't. This past November's election results have put the political handwriting on the wall for the Democrats. But they seem set on destroying the very coalition that brought them into power and they may unintentionally help to remake America as a center-right country for a long time to come. Elections do have their ironies.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

[campaignPete R-CT]

ping for candidates to read

[cajungirl]

They could survive O if they destroy him,,hope they realize that and get at it before he messes us up too bad. If they sense weakness, and they should by now, they will dump so much crap on him he won’t be able to walk let alone shuck and jive.

[goldstategop]

The Democrats have moved far to the Left since Clinton left office. Their political problem is they've returned to the politics of the 1930s while the country has moved on. America doesn't want a European-style welfare state. Even with their expanded House majority, the House only narrowly assented to Obamacare. There's not a great wave of enthusiasm for liberal Democrats' wish list in the country. So Obama won't find his stockings stuffed once the holidays roll around.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

[mrsmel]

I did read it, and thought it was a very good article. My question while reading it was, why don't we ever have such good analysis on our side, looking for factual statistical reasons as to how Republicans can improve their standing in a coming election. Every article I've read like this one, is always looking for the answer as to how the rats can do better. We need this kind of analysis in looking for answers as to how we can do better.

[mrsmel]

I also have a question in regard to this "rebranding"--Hussein was blaming America first in his campaign, and it was no secret that he favors wealth redistribution and all the things which lead to higher deficits and higher taxes. Why are these "moderate" voters just now deciding that they're dissatisfied with that agenda, when it was no secret in the campaign?

[Night Hides Not]

Yep - the “magic” is gone. Now he is just a corrupt, socialist, tax increasing, grow government monster...

Channelling BB King: "The Thrill Is Gone".

[hoosier hick]

I suspect it’s because the GOP leadership has adopted the “we have to move to the left” strategy, and historical analysis doesn’t support their position.....

hh

[campaignPete R-CT]

this is a valuable article .... yet only 13 replies. If we wrote about UFO’s or birthcertificates, it would have 4200 replies within a week.

[GWfan]

mark for later

[campaignPete R-CT]

ping on Virginia