Climate catastrophe cancelled

Voiceover (VO), reporter Martti Backman: Governments around the world are preparing for a grand climate conference, which should decide how humanity responds to the threat of a climate catastrophe. Negotiations are under way to replace the Kyoto treaty with a new treaty of Copenhagen.

VO: The threat is based on assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC. According to the panel, the Earth is going through an unprecedented period of temperature increase, caused by man and his carbon dioxide emissions from burning coal and oil.

The Earth's climate has always been changing. But now we are told that warming is happening faster than ever. The view is based on this figure.

(Picture: The global warming hockey stick graph. Music: Electric organ sounds from an ice-hockey game)

VO: This ten-year-old figure, dubbed as the hockey stick, was meant to revolutionize the dominant view of global climate history. The stick's handle stretches for almost a thousand years, creating an impression of a steady climate, and its' rising blade in the late 1900's is proof of sudden, strong warming, which is caused by man.

VO: The Canadian statistician Steve McIntyre had doubts about the scientific strength of the hockey stick graph, and he decided to unravel the numbers behind it, with the diligence of an auditor.

anyone who swallows this boondoggle should come spend a few years in Maine = the last 10-11 years have gotten increasingly cold - right on schedule with the 23 year, 11 on-11 off, cycle that has been going on forever...coinciding with the number of sun spots.

However, it seems this 11 yr cold cycle is going to hang around beyond it's cycle - no sun spots yet!

I'd like to dump all my 'gloBULL" warming in gore's yard.

I'll definitely read the entire article when I have some time for that. The whole idea of a climate crisis is based on false scientific theory and highly questionable economic assumptions that consumption of fossil fuels will continue to increase for many decades into the future. I think that assumption is incorrect, because the industrialized nations will be unable to increase production of fossil fuels for more than another 20-25 years at most. Coal is probably the most abundant fossil fuel, followed by natural gas, and then crude oil, which is the least abundant and already in a very tight supply/demand balance. There's an imminent minor economic crisis about to happen in 5-10 years when excess crude oil production capacity falls to about 1.5 MM bpd, less than 2% of oil consumption. Oil prices will spike up to around $175 when that happens. Oil producers will be unable to increase oil production beyond today's capacity in response to high prices, because of depletion of existing oil fields. Natural gas will start to go down that same road in 15-20 years as global production tops out and begins to hold steady. North America may go 20-30 years before production flattens out but the world as a whole will see that happen in about 15-20 years. Then finally the same thing will happen with coal in 20-25 years.

So this idea that global CO2 output will continue to increase forever is wrong, and so are forecasts of a climate crisis even if the science of global warming theory was correct, which it isn't. The real challenge facing humanity is to continue producing enough energy and avoiding energy shortages as the global economy expands and the global middle class expands. That challenge will have to be met by alternative energy: wind, solar, tidal, nuclear, and hopefully someday the biggest source of all, nuclear fusion. The other energy "source" that will end up playing a huge role is engineering for energy efficiency, i.e., making everything use less energy without reducing the performance and capability of machinery, equipment, and appliances. That kind of engineering is just getting started in a big way and I think we'll see very large improvements in energy efficiency. Standard-sized cars that get 60 mpg on the highway can be engineered and produced. They'll cost more, but with the high price of oil in the future the extra cost will pay off quickly in fuel savings.

They really should just cancel the Copenhagen conference and use all that valuable jet fuel for some useful purpose, like flying tourists to Hawaii.

One last comment: despite the great challenges facing the world to produce adequate supplies of energy, the BHO administration apparently has no viable energy policy other than to REDUCE energy supplies through the cap and tax bill. Now that's a crazy policy.

Energy policy is the Achilles heel of this administration and it will be one of the biggest reasons for a Republican presidential victory in 2012. When gasoline prices hit $4.50 in the summer of 2012 while global warming theory becomes more discredited every day, the voters will back a GOP candidate who has a sound policy to ensure adequate supplies of energy for America.

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