Unemployment Is Really at 22.1%

Economic Policy Journal ^ | 11/9/09 | Robert Wenzel

[FromLori]

NyPo's John Crudele reports on the latest numbers from Shadow Government Stats and fills in a bit more on how the government is able to whittle down the number to 10.1%: My friend John Williams of Shadow Government Stats thinks the true unemployment rate would be 22.1 percent if everyone -- all discouraged former workers, encouraged, involuntary part-timers and the like -- were included.

Here are more numbers to fry your brain and cause a temporary sense of helplessness.

The government's household survey (the one from which the unemployment rate of 10.2 percent comes) showed a "decline in employment" of 589,000 in October, which followed a 785,000 employment drop in September.

That number also includes people who say they retired and others who were fortunate enough to have died during the past month and no longer require a job.

More numbers: Last Friday's 190,000 loss of jobs (from the survey of companies) would have been worse if 86,000 imaginary jobs weren't included to the tally.

The government thinks those 86,000 jobs are coming from newly formed small businesses that it can't survey, but last month the Labor Department admitted that this might be overly optimistic . The imaginary numbers Crudele refers to are the numbers that come from the infamous Birth/Death Index by which the BLS estimates how many new firms are hiring people.

What is particularly ballsy of the BLS is to make this estimate as money flows to Goldman Sachs, and the like, which is killing off fund availability for small businesses. As Charles Gasparino recently put it:

Goldman, in case you haven't heard, has been classified as a commercial bank, meaning it can borrow cheaply to finance its risk taking, and can borrow from the Federal Reserve in a pinch. That's why it's amassing such massive profits. And yet not a penny of its massive bonus pool will be lent out to funding-starved small businesses. Think about that: The Federal Government run by the most Liberal Administration in years, is subsidizing big business at the expense to small business.

Well, technically, they are no longer a commercial bank (that lasted only a couple of months). God's work they discovered is best done as a financial holding company, but the Fed money still flows and crowds out the small businessman.

[GI Joe Fan]

Wow.

I am speechless here.

[org.whodat]

Goldman, in case you haven't heard, has been classified as a commercial bank, meaning it can borrow cheaply to finance its risk taking, and can borrow from the Federal Reserve in a pinch. That's why it's amassing such massive profits. And yet not a penny of its massive bonus pool will be lent out to funding-starved small businesses. Think about that: The Federal Government run by the most Liberal Administration in years, is subsidizing big business at the expense to small business.

Paulson working over time to protect that golden parachute.

[FromLori]

lol me too shocking that anyone would come out and tell the truth that is what I am speechless about snicker

[WOBBLY BOB]

at least home burglaries are down (AP’s “good news” today) - the private sector is at home, unemployed.Bitterly clinging to their guns and Bibles...

[FromLori]

I think he has a little help from their other friends

http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summary.php?id=D000000085

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

You’re failing to recognize “diversity”. The diversity is between logic and common sense and flaming suicidal nutballism.

[Oratam]

Goldman, in case you haven't heard, has been classified as a commercial bank, meaning it can borrow cheaply to finance its risk taking, and can borrow from the Federal Reserve in a pinch . . . . Think about that: The Federal Government run by the most Liberal Administration in years, is subsidizing big business at the expense to small business.

"What I am saying is, Michael, we have now what we have always needed, real partnership with the government."

[Freddd]

Leave it to a Clinton to first deceive, and Obama follow.

[kittykat77]

Thanks for posting! I’ve always loved Shadow Stats and Shadow Government Stats. The government has been cooking the books for a long, long time.

[albie]

The Clinton administration changed the way BLS calculates unemployment statistics by excluding “discouraged workers,” those who had given up looking for a job because there were no jobs to be found. Clinton just keeps on giving! People are woefully misinformed about unem at 10.2%. (of course, no shocker that these are the same dolts that voted the pissant into office)

[mikelets456]

Still Bush’s fault?

[org.whodat]

Oh, I agree, I just remember the comment that he was on his knees begging.

[andy58-in-nh]

“Michael: we’re bigger than US Steel”.

[Bobalu]

[FromLori]

Govt. employment grrr

http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-27692-LA-County-Libertarian-Examiner~y2009m11d9-Government-is-top-employer-in-southern-Calif-report-reveals

[Nobel_1]

New concrete small business data came out this morning from NFIB which adds confirmation to the shadow. Small Business sentiment remains flat, but the employment picture is negative. What is really worrisome is the very, very negative sales numbers, inventory and capital spending.

See November NFIB Small Business Economic Trends for full details.

[bvw]

For the record, I predicted 25% by the end of one year of Obama, back in January.

[Vaduz]

How’s that Obama change working for ya.

[Newtoidaho]

I guess we can expect another 500 pt. rise in stocks on this information?