So does Intrade know something maybe the normal joe doesnt?
Apparently. My understanding is that these prediction markets are often superior to the pollsters.
I think it’s more of a feel good thingy... This ain’t over until Christie actually gets sworn in. However, he’s got to beat fraudulent votes, a very liberal and corrupt mindset of a state and so on. I ain’t holding my breath but am praying like CRAZY!!!
The results are also notoriously easy to jigger with. I vaguely remember rumors of Soros doing something with them during the '04 elections.
“So does Intrade know something maybe the normal joe doesnt?”
As I understand it to work, this is a form of betting. There is cash behind each trade, such that the polls reflect ‘money being put where one’s mouth is’.
As such, superior in that it taps into one’s natural instinct to win a bet. Greed is good (at least for polling).