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While it would be a longshot, if there was a time coming where a 3rd party run COULD succeed, we are possibly entering it.

It really all depends on who wins the GOP nomination, and how badly the economy is PERCEIVED to be in summer/fall 2011. The GOP would have to nominate someone who could pull at least a few % points from Obama.

The model for this type of run is a mishmash of Jesse Ventura in Minnesota and Ross Perot in 1992.

Ballot access and campaign/party structure is of course, and as mentioned by others, HUGE. The conditions might exist though to create a groundswell of outsider “take over the town” anger.

It would take a very unpopular Obama down to the Clinton/dem baseline of support, and the GOP nominating an uninspiring, Dem Lite candidate that infuriates conservatives and turns off independents who also wouldn’t vote for Obama under any circumstances.

That is quite a table of dice rolls to run through, BUT all of them are possible.

The rub is....who would be the GOP candidate to cause this? While I think Romney is a bit like Bill Clinton, twist his position to suit the moment, he WILL say all the right things on the issues. I’m not sure people would be happy with him, but would they get really, really angry he was the nominee? He IS a weird combination...Massachusetts Gov/Mormon/changed positions/Wall Street guy/considered good on the economy but had a horrible health car plan. Palin could probably sweep a lot of the South including Texas.

Tim Pawlenty? I’m still not as well informed about him to make much of an honest analysis. He isn’t inspiring, but I don’t think he would incite anger either. Again...Palin could probably swing a lot of the South from him.

Huckabee. For all the complaints, he is still too much on the right for Palin to run around him 3rd party. I don’t think he will win the nomination anyway.

Hard to see anyone else getting the nomination at this point, though I suppose you never know. If it were a Tom Ridge or Crist or some other middle of the roader I could see it.

The possiblity would be

Very Unpopular Obama 35% Faltering Romney 29% Palin Independent 36% ? I haven’t run the electoral math. I would guess Palin would HAVE to take Florida and Texas. Romney would have to take Mass and maybe take either CA or NY from Obama..maybe take away PA?

What a mess that would be. A bit like trying to thread a needle while drunk and being tossed about in a tornado.