Posted on 11/02/2009 1:50:49 PM PST by freespirited
Early yesterday, I posited that Dede Scozzafava's withdrawal from the race in NY-23 might hurt Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman. The basic idea is this: If you are a conservative living in NY-23, you're probably already lined up behind Hoffman. Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens were probably mostly splitting the moderate-to-liberal vote at this point. These voters may well conclude that their views are more closely aligned with Owens' than with Hoffman's, and pull the lever disproportionately for the Democrat. The fact that Scozzafava endorsed Owens lends some credence to this viewpoint.
A new poll from PPP casts some doubt on this hypothesis. The poll went through several question iterations, due to the fast-moving sequence of events over the weekend, but the results are unequivocal: In a three-way race, Hoffman leads Owens 51%-34%, with 13% for Scozzafava. Hoffman leads 54%-38% in a head-to-head matchup with Owens.
Owens may well be getting the bulk of Scozzafava's support. The 2-way matchup numbers indicate that Scozzafava's voters lean at least somewhat toward Owens - but if Hoffman is above 50%, it doesn't matter. Moreover, PPP finds that Hoffman is winning among Independents 52%-30%, and is even receiving 21% of the Democratic vote. PPP emphasized that there were no significant differences in the numbers at any point over the course of the weekend.
Of course, this is only one poll, and Siena and DailyKos/Research2000 were showing a much tighter race than PPP was showing before Scozzafava's withdrawal (see all NY23 polls here). If Siena and R2000 have the correct partisan breakdown (and it's worth noting that R2000's partisan breakdown mirrored the registration breakdown in the district, which seems unlikely in an off-year-special-election), then Hoffman may still be in real trouble.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com ...
More likely Owens is the one in real trouble.
what it means is that every limp-wristed pretend Republican is going to be looking over his/her shoulder in 2010...
We, the Tea Party Movement, have tasted blood, and it’s pretty darned good.....
..all it meant was the democratic machine in district 23 plan didn't work and Plugs Biden was making a mess with his Play-Do in the oval office and had to be sent out so they could clean up. He (Soros) hates when he has to peel that stuff off his shoes.
How things hacce worked out in the 23rd....
Fearful that the party had almost no chance of winning the Nov. 3 New York special election after Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava abruptly announced Saturday that she was dropping out, high-ranking national Democrats immediately began working to secure her endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens, POLITICO has learned.
On Sunday afternoon, their vigorous efforts paid off as Scozzafava bucked her own party and issued a statement supporting Owens over Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, a coup for Democrats, who recognized that their best remaining chance of winning the Republican-leaning seat on Tuesday was to swing disaffected Scozzafava supporters their way. By Sunday night, Scozzafava had taped her endorsement and it was being delivered via robo-call into targeted district households.
The story of how it went down began in Washington, where the White House and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee quarterbacked the effort to secure Scozzafava’s endorsement.
According to several senior Democratic officials, Rep. Steve Israel, a Long Island Democrat and DCCC official, was dispatched to meet face to face with Scozzafava in her upstate New York district, within hours of her departure from the race, to make the case on behalf of the national party. He carried the proxy of the White House and congressional Democrats.
Scozzafava, according to one account, was receptive to the entreaties after becoming a target of intense conservative opposition over the past month. The nomination of the moderate to liberal assemblywoman who was backed by the national GOP establishment had become a rallying point for conservative grass-roots activists, who argued that she was far too liberal for them to support.
“She’s devastated that these outside interests are trying to hijack her moderate wing of the party,” said one New York Democrat who had spoken to Scozzafava.
Her support had all but collapsed over the past month; by the end of the week, national Republicans began hedging their bets on her campaign and signaling that they would welcome a Hoffman victory.
When some senior Democrats worried Scozzafava might be wavering about the endorsement, according to another account, the White House got Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, one of the most powerful figures in the state, and New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to place calls to the assemblywoman on Saturday evening to coax her into delivering it. Sen. Chuck Schumer, who had been in touch with White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel and Israel, also weighed in.
Two senior Democrats with ties to the White House praised Cuomo’s role in the operation, saying they were confident Scozzafava was on board after learning that she told Cuomo: “You’re going to be the next governor of New York.”
Also critical was Silver’s assurance, in a phone conversation with Scozzafava, that the state Assembly Democratic caucus would embrace her if she chose to switch parties, now viewed as a real possibility after her endorsement Sunday of Owens.
June O’Neill, until earlier this year the New York Democratic Party chairwoman, played an even more important role in courting Scozzafava, according to one New York official, because they “go to the same social events — church bingo night and the high school dance.”
A fellow North Country resident, O’Neill is close to Scozzafava and her husband, Ron McDougall, a leading upstate New York union official who works closely with state Democrats.
McDougall sent an e-mail out Saturday night offering enthusiastic support for Owens’s candidacy.
On Sunday, Scozzafava released her own statement.
“It’s not in the cards for me to be your representative, but I strongly believe Bill [Owens] is the only candidate who can build upon [former Rep.] John McHugh’s lasting legacy in the U.S. Congress,” she said.
“In Bill Owens, I see a sense of duty and integrity that will guide him beyond political partisanship. He will be an independent voice devoted to doing what is right for New York. Bill understands this district and its people, and when he represents us in Congress he will put our interests first.”
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Diablo’s support was fading before she dropped out - party voters started realizing that she was not a Republican - not even a RINO! Therefore, most of her support will end up in the conservative’s lap. When she endoresed the dumbocrat, she cemented that understanding in the mind of the mostly conservative electorate of that district.
Before I side with the article on this one, does NY allow Straight-Party(one pull of the lever) voting?
If it does, then doesn’t it make sense that the exit by Dede does NOT mean that there was a simple sharing of votes by the Owen and Dede.
Exactly. She’s no moderate, she’s no RINO, she’s a far left RAT in GOP clothing.
Now we believe are supposed to believe polls by R2000 which is the dailyKos pollster outfit and the PPP the dem party pollster outfit and Siena College a Lib arts school ???
My tagline for a long time was “how far over the cliff will we left the left pull us before we just let go of the rope”. I spoke with a doctor friend of mine and he thought that the left went for all the marbles by electing Obama and showing their true colors and Democrat centrists - who live mostly conservative lives, but think being a republican means you won’t help those in need - will break with their party and the net results will be the crumbling of the leftist movement. In fact, he was concerned that they moved so far so fast that the resulting landslide the other way would actually cause the right to literally destroy the left - as in trials of treason, imprisonment, and an undoing of all things liberal for the last 40 years.
Is he an oracle?
Nope. The undoing of the left will be like dislodging the Germans from Italy, circa 1943 - long, slow, bloody.
"[October 30] NARAL Pro-Choice New York has now thrown itself into the three-way battle going on for the New York 23rd with a heavy endorsement for the embattled Republican pro-abortion candidate Dede Scozzafava.
"NARAL, sensing that Scozzafava's political fortunes are in serious trouble, has decided to pour in their resources to prop up her failing bid to fill the seat vacated by Rep. John M. McHugh, who resigned in September to become Secretary of the Army.
"Elizabeth Benjamin of the New York Daily reports that the abortion-advocacy group blanketed 10,000 mailboxes in New York's 23rd on Thursday and Friday to get out the vote for Scozzafava. The mass-mailing costs something to the tune of $10,000-15,000 and tells readers that Scozzafava is a "no brainer choice" because the GOP Assemblywoman has "a 100% pro-choice record and a clear record of commitment to reproductive and women's health care issues."
Is he an oracle?
I hope so.
Yeah, but a few of them will barely know what hit ‘em, like the Nazis that were caught in U.S. uniforms, messing with road signs during the Battle of the Bulge. Bang!
“If Siena and R2000 have the correct partisan breakdown (and it’s worth noting that R2000’s partisan breakdown mirrored the registration breakdown in the district, which seems unlikely in an off-year-special-election),...”
It did address your concerns. Go Doug Go!!!
The Lefties all Love Che so much, Maybe we could take a page out of his play book and simply go house to house and shoot everyone that voted for the Marxist.
Nah, That would be TOO extreme.
We can only wish that you are correct !
There is a lot of Anger about what the Lefties are doing.
We should be prepared for a long hard Politic fight, District by district.
A lesson can be learned from the movie “The Patriot”.
The Excesses of the British Cavalry officer Did Not Crush the will of the Colonists, It only Galvanized them into passionate Resistance.
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