This is a pretty solid D district. That said, Garamendi is extremely loathsome, and Harmer is a pretty darn good candidate. Certainly Garamendi is the favorite, and any D would be, but this will be all about turnout, as all special elections are.
You got it exactly right. A lot hinges on turnout and intensity as well as (dis)/satifaction with the status quo.
Harmer seems to be a great candidate. And this race could have been a big upset.
St. Louis Conservative wrote:
This is a pretty solid D district. That said, Garamendi is extremely loathsome, and Harmer is a pretty darn good candidate. Certainly Garamendi is the favorite, and any D would be, but this will be all about turnout, as all special elections are.
The district historically has gone 2 to 1 (or more) for the Democrats. Garamendi has won more than one statewide elections. This should have been easy. But, after outspending his opponent what will probably be 2 to 1, and getting the support and personal appearances from Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama, he still needed the DCCC to step up with television ads in the final week just to eek out a close win?
It would not have taken much to push Harmer over the top in this race. The NRCC could have spent less than a fifth of what they did in upstate New York, and flipped this seat with Harmer. Instead, they ignored him.
| From the desk of cc2k: |
Candidates I support: Doug Hoffman for Congress, NY 23rd (PayPal), David Harmer for Congress, CA 10th (website for info). Please, spread the word about these important special elections on November 3, 209: New York’s 23rd congressional district and California’s 10th congressional district. |