Pre-Mortem: How Did Deeds Get Into So Much Trouble?

Atlantic ^ | 10/28/09 | Marc Ambinder

[freespirited]

I could just as easily have titled this "Why Bob McDonnell is winning." Let's start with the candidate. As Virginia uber-blogger Not Larry Sabato points out, a governor is a manager. Voters intuitively understand this, and so they look to the candidate who seems to be the best manager. Creigh Deeds doesn't come off as a confident, crisp, efficient manager; Bob McDonnell does. The dynamics of an open seat, with a much narrower pool of voters, a re-energized Republican Party -- these conditions were expected, and they were satisfied. Deeds's climb would be uphill. Also: Virginians fell in love with Mark Warner. They fell in like with Tim Kaine. They seem underwhelmed by Creigh Deeds.

Here are six other reasons why Deeds is losing among, for goodness sakes, even women.

Poor definition. The Washington Post poll shows that voters think Creigh Deeds is too liberal. Too liberal? There's nothing liberal about Deeds. He's as conservative a Democrat as can reasonably be expected to win, and more conservative than Tim Kaine or Mark Warner. That he's been defined as something he isn't is the fault of both his campaign and the consequence of a solid media campaign of his opponent.

GOP Preparation. McDonnell has been the candidate-in-waiting; his strategists are smart, and figured out that a centrist platform would play well in this election, and kept a consistent message.

African American problems. Deeds has had exceptional difficulty attracting black voters. The endorsement of BET co-founder Sheila Johnson sapped all the energy from his efforts to reach out. ...it's hard for black voters, per se, to see how their lives would be made any better, or worse, by having Deeds in power.

Women. The abortion issue has lost its relevance in Northern Virginia. Why? Because a pro-choice Democrat is in power.

[freespirited]

Five days to go.

[Steely Tom]

Wasn’t the Washington Post solidly behind this guy, pumping away like crazy?

Er... Bad image. Let me try again.

Wasn’t the Washington Post engaged on a full-throated effort to...

Forget it.

[exit82]

Let me help you out.

How did they bugger this up?

Nah, not so good.

How about, maybe they faggot how to pimp for candidates of their choice?

You know, this is harder than it looks.

Whoops!

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

Good analysis here.

[freespirited]

Wasn’t the Washington Post engaged on a full-throated effort to...

They're still at it, and will be until the election is called.

[kabar]

Obama is the main reason why Deeds is in trouble. Virginians are looking for a way to express that disapproval and the timing of the coming election is perfect for doing just that. People are angry about the out of control spending and a failing economy. The Dems are in charge and will be held accountable.

[Lazlo in PA]

This is Bulls**t. Every media outlet, including Fox, came out after the primary telling us how great this “Conservative” Dummie was for beating McAlliffe and the other guy. We were then told that with Obamas charm in this state it was a good bet he would win. I am also concerned that this is an attempt to tamp down the motivation of the Right to get out and vote if it is a lock already.