Is there any polling data about the race? Do you know?
There was a poll released about a week ago. The Dem was in the lead, and the libeRal and the Conservative were behind, in that order. But Hoffman had gained 7 point in 2 weeks and was only 10 points from the lead. There was 15% or so undecided.
deport wrote:
Is there any polling data about the race? Do you know?
This race has been a money and advertising race. All three candidates have had outrageous spending on their behalf. Until the RNC and RCCC stepped up, Scozzafava was almost out of cash. Hoffman is well supported by the Club for Growth and a bunch of conservative PACs, plus a lot of small contributors (myself included).
On the issues, the district seems to favor Hoffman. He is much closer to John McHugh, the guy who won last year. And last year, McHugh carried the district with 65% of the vote. On the same ballot, McCain lost, Obama had 52%. That might have been a Conservative=Yes, RINO=No message, but the locals (and the RNC and RCCC) seem to have overlooked that possibility.
I don't see this district lurching left far enough to get Scozzafava in. Her only draw is the "R." She was doomed from day one. The question is, will she pull enough votes away from Hoffman to keep them both out? Or will she pull votes from Owens? It is going to be interesting to watch.
If Hoffman can keep 2 out of 3 McHugh voters, he probably wins. That would be how I would play it if I were making any calls.
Hoffman also has a little better ground game from what I have heard. He has a business with multiple locations in the district, and family enterprises all over the district (5 locations are his, and like 13 more in his family).
But I live in Florida, so what could I know?
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According to a new poll released by the Siena Research Institute, Scozzafava is losing more support each and every day, Hoffman is gaining support, and Owens is sitting silently on the sidelines letting Republicans bicker amongst themselves.
Bill Owens (D) - 33%
“Dede” Scozzafava (R) - 29%
Doug Hoffman (C) - 23%
Undecided - 15%.
http://righthandedpitcher.blogspot.com/2009/10/doug-hoffman-surges-in-polls-time-for.html