Replies

Thanks for that wealth of truly outstanding information!
I wish all FReepers would respond in kind, when one is seriously trying to figure things out, and not be so quick with wisecracks or dogma.
The very strange, very vexing, and to my mind, unprecedented thing about this upstate NY race is almost that Ms Scozzafava seems almost intentionally to be put into the race TO LOSE, PUT INTO THE RACE BY THE REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT TO LOSE!! NOT TO LOSE FOR HERSELF, but to force a loss FOR THE PARTY! She has backing of key people,
and she has so little to offer that’s any different from the Democrat candidate, that the electorate may just go for the Democrat candidate in what was always a Republican stronghold. This woman, as has been said, is not a RINO, she is virtually a Liberal Democrat! So she seems (again, though, maybe just a sui generis individual case, and NOT a trend) to represent something that I can’t ever remember seeing before. Something that looks ludicrous in a way serious political candidates are never SUPPOSED to look
I characterized her not as just an Arlen-Specter-in-Waiting,but like an Arlen Specter that’s ALREADY defected, and is being trotted out for the voter’s approval.

BTT

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for Bill Owens, the Democrat, Dede Scozzafava, the Republican, or Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate?

	DEDE SCOZZAFAVA	DOUG HOFFMAN	BILL OWENS	UNDECIDED
ALL	30	23	35	12
MEN	28	28	31	13
WOMEN	32	18	39	11
DEMOCRATS	16	8	60	16
REPUBLICANS	46	27	18	9
INDEPENDENTS	22	35	32	11
18-29	26	20	38	16
30-44	30	22	36	12
45-59	32	24	34	10
60+	31	26	33	10

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today, which candidate would be your second choice, Bill Owens, the Democrat, or Dede Scozzafava, the Republican? (ONLY ASKED AMONG THE 23% VOTING FOR HOFFMAN)

	DEDE SCOZZAFAVA	BILL OWENS	WON'T VOTE	UNDECIDED
ALL	9	3	26	62
MEN	7	3	29	61
WOMEN	12	3	22	63
DEMOCRATS	3	6	18	73
REPUBLICANS	13	1	21	65
INDEPENDENTS	5	3	35	57
18-29	6	4	23	67
30-44	8	4	24	64
45-59	10	3	28	59
60+	11	2	30	57

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose creating a government-administered health insurance option that anyone can purchase to compete with private insurance plans?

	FAVOR	OPPOSE	NOT SURE
ALL	52	42	6
MEN	48	44	8
WOMEN	56	40	4
DEMOCRATS	83	12	5
REPUBLICANS	27	68	5
INDEPENDENTS	55	38	7
18-29	57	38	5
30-44	55	40	5
45-59	49	44	7
60+	47	46	7

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally?

	FAVOR	OPPOSE	NOT SURE
ALL	39	53	8
MEN	36	57	7
WOMEN	42	49	9
DEMOCRATS	64	31	5
REPUBLICANS	18	72	10
INDEPENDENTS	42	50	8
18-29	43	48	9
30-44	49	52	8
45-59	38	55	7
60+	35	57	8

QUESTION: Which of the following comes closes to you view on abortion? (ROTATED): Abortion should be legal in all cases, OR Abortion should be legal in most cases, OR Abortion should be illegal in most cases, OR Abortion should be illegal in all cases.

	LEGAL ALL	LEGAL MOST	ILLEGAL MOST	ILLEGAL ALL	NOT SURE
ALL	31	17	16	27	9
MEN	28	16	18	28	10
WOMEN	34	18	14	26	8
DEMOCRATS	54	19	13	9	5
REPUBLICANS	14	15	20	41	10
INDEPENDENTS	31	18	14	26	11
18-29	33	18	13	24	12
30-44	34	19	14	25	8
45-59	30	16	18	29	7
60+	26	15	19	31	9

Demographics

MEN	286	48%
WOMEN	314	52%
DEMOCRATS	191	32%
REPUBLICANS	251	42%
INDEPENDENTS	158	26%
18-29	89	15%
30-44	205	34%
45-59	211	35%
60+	95	16%

------------- Methodology NY-23 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2009 This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 600 likely voters in the Twenty-Third Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 19 and October 21, 2009. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation. ------------ Source: Daily Kos/Research 2000 NY-23 Poll Research 2000, MoE 4%, Oct 19, 2009 - Oct 21, 2009 http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/10/21/NY/403