Can Doug Hoffman Win in New York's 23rd Congressional District?

BTT

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for Bill Owens, the Democrat, Dede Scozzafava, the Republican, or Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate?

	DEDE SCOZZAFAVA	DOUG HOFFMAN	BILL OWENS	UNDECIDED
ALL	30	23	35	12
MEN	28	28	31	13
WOMEN	32	18	39	11
DEMOCRATS	16	8	60	16
REPUBLICANS	46	27	18	9
INDEPENDENTS	22	35	32	11
18-29	26	20	38	16
30-44	30	22	36	12
45-59	32	24	34	10
60+	31	26	33	10

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today, which candidate would be your second choice, Bill Owens, the Democrat, or Dede Scozzafava, the Republican? (ONLY ASKED AMONG THE 23% VOTING FOR HOFFMAN)

	DEDE SCOZZAFAVA	BILL OWENS	WON'T VOTE	UNDECIDED
ALL	9	3	26	62
MEN	7	3	29	61
WOMEN	12	3	22	63
DEMOCRATS	3	6	18	73
REPUBLICANS	13	1	21	65
INDEPENDENTS	5	3	35	57
18-29	6	4	23	67
30-44	8	4	24	64
45-59	10	3	28	59
60+	11	2	30	57

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose creating a government-administered health insurance option that anyone can purchase to compete with private insurance plans?

	FAVOR	OPPOSE	NOT SURE
ALL	52	42	6
MEN	48	44	8
WOMEN	56	40	4
DEMOCRATS	83	12	5
REPUBLICANS	27	68	5
INDEPENDENTS	55	38	7
18-29	57	38	5
30-44	55	40	5
45-59	49	44	7
60+	47	46	7

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally?

	FAVOR	OPPOSE	NOT SURE
ALL	39	53	8
MEN	36	57	7
WOMEN	42	49	9
DEMOCRATS	64	31	5
REPUBLICANS	18	72	10
INDEPENDENTS	42	50	8
18-29	43	48	9
30-44	49	52	8
45-59	38	55	7
60+	35	57	8

QUESTION: Which of the following comes closes to you view on abortion? (ROTATED): Abortion should be legal in all cases, OR Abortion should be legal in most cases, OR Abortion should be illegal in most cases, OR Abortion should be illegal in all cases.

	LEGAL ALL	LEGAL MOST	ILLEGAL MOST	ILLEGAL ALL	NOT SURE
ALL	31	17	16	27	9
MEN	28	16	18	28	10
WOMEN	34	18	14	26	8
DEMOCRATS	54	19	13	9	5
REPUBLICANS	14	15	20	41	10
INDEPENDENTS	31	18	14	26	11
18-29	33	18	13	24	12
30-44	34	19	14	25	8
45-59	30	16	18	29	7
60+	26	15	19	31	9

Demographics

MEN	286	48%
WOMEN	314	52%
DEMOCRATS	191	32%
REPUBLICANS	251	42%
INDEPENDENTS	158	26%
18-29	89	15%
30-44	205	34%
45-59	211	35%
60+	95	16%

------------- Methodology NY-23 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2009 This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 600 likely voters in the Twenty-Third Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 19 and October 21, 2009. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation. ------------ Source: Daily Kos/Research 2000 NY-23 Poll Research 2000, MoE 4%, Oct 19, 2009 - Oct 21, 2009 http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/10/21/NY/403

And whats your point about a week old poll?

There is a new poll out showing Hoffman has taken the lead.

Polls are just snap-shots in time. The poll last week showed him behind and the poll today shows him ahead.

One thing is for sure, the Big Mo is on Hoffmans side for the moment.

I was not making any points about the old poll, simply stating the location on FR for the data. Now after looking at both polls, it is obvious that Hoffman has the upward trend and this district is very conservative and unless the RNC has more influence with money, this is now a fight between Owens and Hoffman

I personally think the key will be the Plattsburgh AF and Fort Drum areas. Also as indicated on a link:

“[Hoffman’s] strongest region is the part of NY23 near Syracuse. Lots of conseravtive voters and no connection to either Owens or Scozzafava. That makes Madison and Oswego County Hoffman country. How he does elsewhere will hinge on local issues and loyalties as much as national angst.”