What Keyes would have us believe is that had Obama not been qualified to run for president then Keyes might have won. That is a stretch by anyone's imagination.
Or Keyes might have sucked enough votes from Her Thighness to have McStain win. Likely he would have. Winning is generally not the object for a third party candidate. Usually it's just making a point, but not always.
H. Ross Perot's object was to defeat Bush, not win the election. He succeeded. Keyes may similarly have wanted to deny the election to the Democrats, which he might have done if Senator Clinton had been their standard bearer.