Zenith: More Losses for Newspapers, Mags in 2010-2011 (Dinosaur Media DeathWatch™)

Media Daily News ^ | October 19, 2009 | Eric Sass

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In case the latest ZenithOptimedia ad-spending forecast wasn't depressing enough, the outlook for newspapers and magazines is especially bad -- even relative to the grim state of advertising in general.

Among the gloomy predictions: while overall ad spending is expected to rebound somewhat in 2011, newspapers and magazines will continue to decline due to secular factors, including Internet competition.

ZenithOptimedia expects total ad spending in developed markets to drop 9.9% in 2009, followed by a further 2.9% decline in 2010, thanks to continuing structural economic problems. After this, the Zenith forecast has ad spending in developed markets growing 1.5% in 2011. In North America, this means total ad spending will climb from just under $179 billion in 2008 to $152 billion in 2011.

But newspapers and magazines will not share the modest growth from 2010-2011. Globally, newspaper ad expenditures are predicted to fall 17% in 2009, 4.5% in 2010, and 0.5% in 2011. In dollar terms, that means total spending will go from $123.1 billion in 2008 to $97.2 billion in 2009, for an overall drop of 20% from 2008-2011.

Magazines will fare about the same, according to Zenith, shrinking 20% in 2009, 5.9% in 2010, and 0.5% in 2011. In dollar terms, total spending for magazines will tumble from $56.6 billion in 2008 to $42.6 billion in 2011, for an overall drop of 25% over this three-year period. In terms of share of global ad spending, Zenith expects newspapers to fall from 25.3% in 2008 to 21.2% in 2011, while magazines will slip from 11.6% to 9.3%.

The 2009 figures are certainly plausible given the steep drops experienced by both media so far this year in the United States. Through the third quarter, magazine ad pages are down 27.2%, according to the Publishers Information Bureau, while newspaper ad revenues fell 28.3% in the first quarter and 29% in the second, according to the Newspaper Association of America.

In fact, percentage losses in the U.S. media may be steeper than the global average, as print media have enjoyed more success in developing markets like China and India over the last few years.

Zenith's forecast is somewhat more pessimistic than some other predictions, including one issued earlier this year by PricewaterhouseCoopers, which estimated global newspaper revenues would decline 10.2% in 2009 followed by cumulative annual declines of 2% per year in 2010-2013. PWC expects print advertising income to decline by a cumulative rate of 4.5% per year from 2009-2013.

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Tuesday morning good news.

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ping

[Frantzie]

The only good newspaper besides maybe a small local one is Investors Business Daily.

The NRA magazines are doing quite well.

[Izzy Dunne]

So when is the bailout coming?

[GOPJ]

Liberals writing for liberals isn’t a good business model...

[abb]

http://www.poynter.org/column.asp?id=131&aid=172037
Next Steps for Downie-Schudson: ‘Mutualizing’ News about News

http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=115722
Bad News: Magazine Ad Pages Down 19% in November

http://www.reuters.com/article/entertainmentNews/idUSTRE59J0GI20091020
NBC Universal’s Graboff says TV windows collapsing

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/20/sports/baseball/20sandomir.html?ref=media
As a TV Market, Los Angeles Is Staggering in the Playoffs

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/10/19/the-washington-posts-executive-editor-should-resign/
The Washington Post’s executive editor should resign

http://www.medialifemagazine.com/artman2/publish/Media_economy_57/Scoping_out_the_recovery_in_advertising.asp
Scoping out the recovery in advertising
Fourth-quarter spending will sink another 9 percent

http://www.smartmoney.com/news/ON/?story=ON-20091019-000290-1114
Gannett: Broadcasting Would Be Better Off Without Leno

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/glamour_wired_take_latest_hits_2gjT4KZxznkwx4WrmgJrKJ
Glamour, Wired take latest hits

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/oct/20/revenue-financial-times-group-down
Pearson bullish despite revenue slump at Financial Times division

http://newsosaur.blogspot.com/
Columbia writes off the MSM. Now what?

http://cancelthebee.blogspot.com/
Star-Telegram employees getting the squeeze

[GeronL]

The bad news is a bailout is coming that will make the media really beholden to Obama. They will be bowing at his toes hourly instead of several times a day.

[downwdims]

How are Conservative media outlets faring in this? IE the Waterford Republican-American and National Review?

We all know Fox, Beck, and Limbaugh are doing extraordinarily well

[abb]

They are working on it...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/18/AR2009101801461.html

Finding a new model for news reporting
By Leonard Downie Jr. and Michael Schudson
Monday, October 19, 2009

snip

A national Fund for Local News should be created with fees the Federal Communications Commission collects from or could impose on telecom users, broadcast licensees or Internet service providers. Grants should be made competitively by independent state Local News Fund Councils to local news organizations for innovations in local news reporting and ways to support it.

snip

[abb]

Smaller newspapers are doing better than large metro newspapers, regardless of ideology. IIRC, National Review supported by an endowment, rather than advertising.

It is my opinion that ink-on-paper information distribution will continue to decline in importance, regardless of the political ideology of the content.

It is more a technological shift than anything else.

[ConservativeMind]

F*** NO!

[SamAdams76]

Got something you want to sell?

Place an ad in the classified section of your newspaper and you MIGHT sell it in a few weeks.

OR...

Put it on eBay or Craiglist and it will sell in hours.

That tells you pretty much all you need to know about the future of the newspaper business. The business model just doesn't work any more.

And the fact that the content found in newspapers is pretty awful, that doesn't help either.

The local papers in my town (Boston Herald, Boston Globe) are now $1.00 at the newstand. Are they kidding? Who under the age of 55 is going to pay a dollar a day to read that dreck?

The only newspaper worth paying for is the Wall Street Journal and I get it online.

[abb]

The only newspaper worth paying for is the Wall Street Journal and I get it online.

I've been an online subscriber since day one. But this year may be the last - I'm seriously considering pulling the plug. Most of what they have is not proprietary and can be got elsewhere.

Likewise, this is the year I'm pulling the plug on the National Geographic. I've been a member since 1977. They can print all the environmental claptrap they see fit, but I ain't paying for it any more.

[downwdims]

These Printers are retarded. Print more stuff! I called the R-A and asked for Delivery. They said you can get us 3 issues at a time via USMAIL or instantly via PDF. If the printers and delivery staff were decoupled from the newsroom establishments they would be able to deliver more than (In my city) five Newspapers(NYT, WSJ, UST, STRIB, PP).

They should be in favor of de-coupling the “Newsroom” from the printing press!! it will lead to more business!!!

[downwdims]

I was born in 1977 and I endorse not paying for NatGeo.

[Chances Are]

The only newspaper worth paying for is the Wall Street Journal and I get it online.

Investors Business Daily (IBD) is what the WSJ used to be, especially editorially. If the Journal fails to inspire you nowadays, take a look at IBD!

CA....

[abb]

http://www.poynter.org/column.asp?id=45&aid=172052
No progress in Philly newspapers contract talks

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/peter-roff/2009/10/20/government-should-stay-out-of-media-let-the-press-fend-for-itself.html
Government Should Stay Out of Media, Let the Press Fend for Itself

http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/20/inside-the-beltway-64999506/
HAILING THE BAILOUT

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/greenslade/2009/oct/20/downturn-us-press-publishing
Report dares to call for public funding to save American journalism

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a27402ac-bd10-11de-a7ec-00144feab49a.html
Call to subsidise local news reporting

http://blog.heritage.org/2009/10/19/when-government-rewrites-the-news/
If Government Rewrites News

http://www.radiosurvivor.com/2009/10/20/new-study-says-little-or-no-local-news-at-most-radio-stations/
New study says “little or no local news” at most radio stations

[Landru]

"Tuesday morning good news."

Yes, the board's bearer of good "News"!! LOL

"Among the gloomy predictions: while overall ad spending is expected to rebound somewhat in 2011, newspapers and magazines will continue to decline due to secular factors, including Internet competition."

This particular quisling-scribe has a POV problem, that's all. LOL!!!

[abb]

http://gawker.com/5385917/tipster-six-layoffs-at-bon-appetit
Tipster: Six Layoffs at Bon Appetit

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1004023735
A.H. Belo’s ‘Press-Enterprise’ Lays Off More Than 40

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1004023791
‘Charlotte Observer’ Offers Buyouts

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1004025320
‘Wash Post’ Salon Issue Raises Ethics Concerns About Brauchli

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/365710-Journal_Station_Revenue_Down_24_.php
Journal Station Revenue Down 24%

[abb]

Lookie here!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33402373

Earnings Preview: New York Times to post 3Q report

BY THE NUMBERS: On average, analysts expect the Times Co. to sink back into the red, projecting a loss of a penny per share, according to a Thomson Reuters poll. Analysts typically exclude one-time charges or gains from their estimates. Revenue is estimated at $561.6 million, on average.

ANALYST TAKE: Edward Atorino, a media analyst with Benchmark Co., expects the Times Co. to report a loss.

“I think the fact that they announced this downsizing of the (newsroom) might indicate that revenue has been a little soft,” he said. “I think its going to be a tough quarter.”

WHAT’S AHEAD: While it has taken the Globe off the market, the Times Co. is still considering options for its other New England newspaper, the Telegram & Gazette in Worcester, Mass.