Disagree all you want, it is what will happen. If the 2012 field is a GOP RINO, Palin and Obama, Obama will win handedly in the electoral college after garnering somewhere less than half of the popular vote, just like Clinton. If we run Palin or another true conservative against Obama, The One is headed back to Chicago. History shows that any other scenario is a pipe dream.
I may very well happen anyway and thats why your argument is not valid.
I have found myself at odds with both parties and will not for for a candidate of either unless some very drastic changes are made.