Yes, a third party movement arising to split the vote on the right is the real danger here.
Yes, history doesn’t suggest that the squishy, big-government, RINO Republican Establishment changes its approach from a conservative winning an election or two.
Just like Reagan and the Reagan voters in 1980, the Republican Party will have to be taken back by the force of the conservative message being taken directly to the voters and winning elections. But that has to be done within from within the Republican Party, not by yet another third-party effort that’d only rightly thrill the Democrats.
Best lesson from this race would be for the conservatives to take back the Republican Party, not try to circumvent it.