Flu Season in USA - High Activity Already Exceeds Historical Trends

Google Trends ^ | 29 September 2009

[dangerdoc]

We are definately having more flu for the time of year. We did not have admissions for the flu until the winter last year. This year, we not only have had admissions earlier than usual but had a young man die last week.

[Blueflag]

OK, what was he admitted for? Acute respiratory distress? What was he presenting with besides flu symptoms? Surely flu symptoms are not worth a hospital admission?!?! And one does not typically lose a patient to flu symptoms.

And yes, this flu season did start early. No contesting that. May also means this H1N1-A season will end early, and a second more typical influenza wave will follow.

[discostu]

How many people on campus? How does that compare to a normal flu season? How many of them got it from the vaccine?

[AppyPappy]

No vaccine available for us. We normally don’t have Swine Flu and we normally don’t have flu this early. They think it is just a faster spreading flu than normal.

[Scythian]

Well according the flu map data we are already at normal peak flu season rates which normally don’t occur until late Jan - early Feb, so, this will be over quickly, long before the flu vaccine comes out, my fear is they are going to release something else ...

[dangerdoc]

I think you are splitting hairs.

One does not usually lose patient to flu symptoms but this one did die and quickly. I spoke with the infectious disease doctor last friday, he was shaken, they did not think he had a secondary pneumonia. They placed him on a respirator and could not sustain his respiratory function.

The flu season started early but we have more susceptable individuals in the population so who knows when it will peak or at what level.

[dangerdoc]

“my fear is they are going to release something else ...”

Honestly, we are sounding like the truthers around here. What is the difference between stating that Bush worked with the Jews to blow up our own people and stating that we are releasing infectious disease into the world?

[discostu]

Vaccines are available pretty much every. Obviously you don’t normally get swine flu. And flu is truthfully a year round virus, especially when we have colder than normal weather. They “think” a lot of stuff, but since CDC and WHO stopped collecting stats in July it’s mostly just lies and guesses masquerading as facts.

[Blueflag]

Not trying to split hairs; merely get to the real cause of death.

Take a look at this ‘recent’ article from the NEJM. Several of these patients were admitted for ‘flu symptoms’, developed acute respiratory distress, and/or [bacterial] pneumonia and died despite various treatments— from respiratory failure. Not well that the subsequently infected health care workers did not die.

Food for thought.

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/NEJMoa0904252

[AppyPappy]

I’m getting a flu shot on Oct 5. That was the first date available.

[discostu]

I never get the shot not planning on changing it this year. But given the stories of reactions we know people can get them.

[AppyPappy]

I get one every year. I did a lot of study on the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic. I don’t want to risk that.

[discostu]

I don’t get the flu (or if I do it’s mild enough I think it’s just a cold), and I’m afraid of needles, so I don’t get the shot. One of these days when I start getting more susceptible I’ll get the shots, until then I’ll ride it out.

[goodnesswins]

HA....I guess you’re right.....Local vs. widespread???

[underthestreetlite]

Per the new CDC flu activity level definitions, widespread means there is increased ILI in at least half of the regions in the state and recent lab confirmed influenza

[RaptorY22]

SERIOUS BS ALERT ...?

Who died and made you the Czar of BS Alerts...?

The original post was a link to a graph and a map of USA flu situation from Google Trends. The second posting from the same contributor showed a CDC map that showed the status of the flu incidence in different states. What was BS about these posts?

The methodology for the Google trends graphs and maps is available at the link provided. The methodology for how CDC reports the weekly influenza activity is available at the CDC website (link included).

The posts from the initial contributor merely reported that the flu activity in USA for this week exceeded previous data (see CDC graph included below).

What was the BS that you were alerting us about? Do you think that the Freepers are a bunch of morons who can not tell BS from fact unless you alert them?

The CDC website reported that during the period of August 30 – September 19, 2009 there were 10,082 influenza related hospitalizations and 936 deaths across the United States. For ordinary people, who may not be as educated and learned in epidemiology as you seem to be, this is still a significant number of deaths in a period of about 3 weeks.

You wrote a 4-5 paragraph post that was essentially nothing more than your opinion. You did not cite any sources for your assertions. You did not explain what made you singularly qualified to tell us to "Go on with your life."

I respectfully submit to you, that in my humble opinion, you are the one full of BS!

Link to CDC website:

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/

[Blueflag]

dude. chill.

The BS remark was about the google ‘how many flu-related search terms have been entered?’ data, *not* the CDC reports.

I follow the CDC data pretty closely. I RECOMMEND the CDC sites to folks who want the straight scoop.

Perhaps I didn’t word it to your satisfaction ;-) but my point was actually to have people look at the CDC data: about real epidemiological trend data, read guidance to clinicians, FACTS about morbidity and co-morbidity, complications and so on. It is also important to compare the data for THIS virus to prior H1N1-A outbreaks.

While the google search data may be interesting from a social perspective — as an indicator of interest, nee ‘hysteria,’ it is clearly not a direct indicator of the spread and impact of the H1N1-A/ swine-origin influenza (SOI). Sure it’s an interesting coincidence, perhaps tightly correlated in their SEMs, but I can’t see any causal relationships. The CDC data ARE far better indicators.

NET: I AGREE with the CDC methodology and their data, and the integrity of their reports. I was ONLY calling BS on the scientific/medical value of the google search trends and transactions data.

REM: The “Go on with your life” comment is what I believe (yes, my opinion) you should derive from the data and the CDC data/findings/trends: that
(1) H1N1-A SOI is clearly not a population killer,
(2) is relatively mild in its impact as a pathogen (especially compared to ‘bird flu’or ANY H5N1 virus),
(3) is implicated in an above average number of respiratory failure deaths due to
(a) increased testing/diagnosis for SOI, and
(b) SOI is more of a ‘killer’ than general flu season strains in recent years, but
(c) deaths directly attributed to SOI are *below* epidemic levels according to the CDC (see the fluview pages)

Finally: I do not think you or FReepers in general are a “bunch of morons who can not tell BS from fact unless you alert them”. I meant merely to call into question and perspective the google trends data versus the science and integrity of the CDC, AND YES, alert people to the actual risks/impact of a SOI infection versus what the media and our civil government are hyping. I again encourage all to read the CDC’s guidance to Clinicians. There you will find that the CDC is well-aware of the moderate threat presented by this virus in its present form, and has guided the medical community with a very typical and reasoned response to a genuine outbreak/pandemic.

As far as my being full of BS — I often am ;-), but not this time.

[RaptorY22]

As far as my being full of BS — I often am ;-), but not this time.

Nothing personal.

The tone you adopted at tbe beginning of that post sounded a little harsh so my response was simply a reaction to that.

This last post was informative and thank you for your views and contribution - appreciate it.

I apologize to you for the BS comment - No hard feelings.

[discostu]

Which means what? Really the question boils down to what percentage of the populace has the disease?

[Blueflag]

No worries. No hard feelings.

It’s hard to infer ‘tone of voice’ in a post.

Happy to reply and add clarity.

See you on FR!