They are going to deploy 50 warheads on missiles as their own deterrent, and then they are going to conveniently lose a half dozen, that will show up in the hands of Hezbollah and Hamas, which will fire them at Israel.
I’m not so sure about the details of your scenario, but I’m in general agreement with your idea that Iran is much more likely to attack through surrogates than to ever launch a first strike from its own territory. In fact, Iran will go to great lengths to make it look like a terrorist nuke originated from anywhere but Iran. This makes a nuclear Iran more dangerous than any other nuclear state, because the deterrent effect of the idea of mutually assured destruction only works when you know who the perps are. Everyone knows this, that’s why even the Europeans are starting to make some noise that it’s a really bad thing for Iran to get nukes.
He is interested, and feels called, to usher in the Mahdi. Muslim prophecy says that the Mahdi will be ushered in in a time of great war.
Ahmanutjob IS INTENT on creating that war NO MATTER the losses. Those losses will be considered martyrs in bringing forth the Mahdi.
Ahmanutjob isn't dangerous because he HAS nukes and THREATENS Israel and the US out of posturing. Ahmanutjob is dangerous BECAUSE he has EVERY INTENTION of using them.
He KNOWS 1 or 2 nukes won't destroy Israel. He KNOWS Israel will respond IN FULL, destroying Iran. He is counting on, and rightfully so, that with Israels response, Arab neighbors WILL attack Israel.
Israel more than likely would not limit its response to Iran, as it knows that Syria and Libya, and maybe Jordan and Saudi Arabia and possibly Egypt, would most definetly attack. Thus thrusting the entire MidEast into chaos.
Thus in Ahmanutjobs view, ushering in the Mahdi.
It is reported that Ahmanutjob goes to a well and talks with the Mahdi. Thereby inforcing Ahmanutjobs desire to bring about this war.