[RobRoy]

I have been saying that we are in the eye of a storm, and while we were here, the storm picked up considerably.

I think we will come full force out of the eye on Black Friday. It could take until next spring, but I am expecting really bad (as in violence, not economic) stuff going down all over the world, including the US. This guy hit the same points I’ve been discussing for a while now. One of the biggest is that when half a million a month are going ON unemployment, it is bad. When half a million a month are seeing their unemployment expire with no job, well, like Gerald Celente says, when people lose everything and have nothing to lose, they lose it.

My biggest concern is that when this DOES hit, it will be virtually overnight. Maybe a half a week.

[Eighth Square]

If the whole thing goes down it wouldn't take much for this drugged out, undisciplined society to explode. Let us pray that our military, if called upon, could contain the madness.

[BP2]

My biggest concern is that when this DOES hit, it will be virtually overnight. Maybe a half a week.

Agreed — expect a massive dump that leaves the unexpecting nitwit holding the bag. History shows that when the BIG BOYS feel they have driven the stocks up enough, they will sell off en mass and take their profits earned from when they bought during the lows. That's what the latest RUN UP since March has been all about.

To avoid taxes next year, they will sell off before Dec. 31, ESPECIALLY with Obama likely to MASSIVELY increase taxes in 2010 for those making over $250K per year. The economy will be VERY slow January-March 2010 leading into the next wave of foreclosures. Expect the big sell off to begin when the Forecasts start coming in of a poor Christmas buying season. The BDI is very telling of the 2009 Christmas buying season!

Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) Recent, exponential average in red.

Lastly, Interest Rates MUST go up VERY SOON to entice buyers of US Treasury (UST) notes. Given the degree of "intermediation" by the Federal Reserve in the issuance of US Treasuries hitting a record in Q2, Federal Research System Open Market Account (SOMA) purchasing accounts for just under 50 percent of all net UST issuance "absorption". This is a startling number, as the Fed's SOMA purchases of $164 billion in Q2 Treasury notes dwarf the combined foreign/household UST purchases of $101 billion and $29 billion, respectively, over the same time period.

In fact, the Fed's SOMA purchases was a greater factor in UST demand than all three traditional players combined: Foreigners, Households and Primary Dealers, which amounted to a $158 billion in net Q2 purchases. This dramatic imbalance puts a lot of question marks over how the upcoming hundreds of billions in incremental Treasury purchases will be soaked up to pay for the decrease of tax revenues and increase in treasury spending. China is reportedly — and understandably — losing interest in buying into America's future.

Just throw in a mini-calamity, such as a run on US banks precipitated by:
- domestic terrorist attacks
- attacks on Iraqi nuclear sites causing a HUGE spike in oil prices
- an extremely harsh US winter with slow-to-respond international grain imports
- Swine Flu mutation, etc

... and easy to see that we are very, VERY near a TIPPING POINT.