I would not be surprised if some of these polls are playing with their data or simply fudging the umbers to make sure he stays at 50% or above. Given how close to 50 he’s been including at 50 a few times, the decline in support for a number of his key policies, etc... I find it hard to believe he wouldn’t drop below 50 on at least one day in the past 2 months. A few polls have had him below 50 but all the big network and MSM ones haven’t. No surprise there.
And these samples that have a 15 pt Dem ID advantage? Please.
But I do think it’s clear that’s his September PR blitz has arrested the decline of August. It was to be expected. With Congress back in session, a big natl tv speech, going on all the shows, being front and center, having the bully pulpit, he was able to take control of things much better than in August when he was off stage and all the attention was on the town halls and the opposition.
He still has 60 votes in the Senate and 260 in the House. Opposition to health care in the 50-55% range won’t be enough to stop it. We really need another big moment, something that will get natl attention and coverage and that everyone will be exposed to. Shift the debate back to the other side and take the initiative. Now, when you’re in the minority and have no real access that’s hard to do. We can’t have natl a primetime speech on all the networks. We don’t have all of the media flacking for us.
I’m not sure what exactly would do the trick, but there has to be something otherwise it’ll likely pass. All with dem votes, but pass nonetheless.
I totally agree with your analysis. And today he made a statement about Iran’s nuke program that all of the networks with the exception of Fox portrayed as tough and decisive. He had the British and French standing next to him and the Russians seeming to agree sanctions are inevitable. I predict his ratings will start to rise. Nothing helps a president more than the appearance he’s handling an international crisis.