That is pretty simple.
Let’s see. In 2006 (the most recent year I have data on) we budgeted $345B for Medicare. Add to that the premiums paid by individuals, and the copays they paid at the time of service.
Divide that number by the number of persons receiving Medicare. Then weight that number down by some value less than 1 (say .5) to reflect the fact that the present Medicare population is made up of elderly who are higher than average consumer of healthcare (as opposed to those less than 35).
Now multiply by 304 million. That’s the annual cost of Medicare for everyone.
Oh, yeah, then inflate by the difference in medical costs relative to 2006.
So did you do the math?