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Why gold at $1,000 an ounce could just be the beginning
The Telegraph ^ | 9/9/2009 | Tom Stevenson

Posted on 09/09/2009 6:04:52 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

How significant is gold's break through $1,000 on Tuesday? We have been here before, most recently in February, but each time the yellow metal has failed to hold the line.

Flagging industrial and jewellery demand has ultimately overwhelmed the gold bugs' desire to push the price through what feels like an important psychological barrier (even if it's really just round numbers).

snip snip

... the unprecedented monetary stimulus with which the authorities fended off Great Depression 2 is very likely to lead to a serious inflation problem down the track. And that gold and other real assets will be a profitable way of playing that outcome. Having been in short trousers when runaway prices last wreaked havoc with the global economy, I also defer to his first-hand experience.

The credit bubble, as we all know, is being unwound. There are two ways this can happen: either we pay off the debt (that is to say deflate) or we borrow even more (in other words inflate). For an individual, only the first option is available, and a painful period of living frugally is the unavoidable consequence of a bout of profligate spending. For a government, however, especially one that knows that 70pc of economic growth comes from consumer spending, the temptation to adopt the less prudent path is simply too great.

Inflating out of financial crises is what countries have always done and I see no reason why this episode should be any different.

On both sides of the Atlantic the talk is turning to exit strategies and a clear message is emerging. Faced with a choice between moving too soon or too late, governments will prefer to delay. Inflation may return by accident – in a bid to avoid the mistake of the 1930s when policy was tightened too quickly

(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: gold
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1 posted on 09/09/2009 6:04:52 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Be careful here folks.


2 posted on 09/09/2009 6:07:07 AM PDT by allmost
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To: SeekAndFind
Hmmm....

1. We are in a massive deflationary credit implosion.

2. If you think hyper inflation is coming - buy lots of houses using as much leverage as you can. It is by far the best thing you can do in hyperinflation.

3. All of these “invest in gold” TV/Radio/Internet advertisements run constantly. One sure sign that you are late to the party.

3 posted on 09/09/2009 6:07:35 AM PDT by 2banana (My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
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To: 2banana

There really is no where to go.


4 posted on 09/09/2009 6:09:53 AM PDT by scooby321 (and)
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To: SeekAndFind
monetary stimulus with which the authorities fended off Great Depression 2

Bwahahaha! It will usher in Great Depression 2!

5 posted on 09/09/2009 6:10:10 AM PDT by SolidWood (Sarah Palin: "Only dead fish go with the flow!")
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To: 2banana

There is a floor under the gold price as the Chinese are trying to move slowly out of dollars into metals.

One more bit of really bad financial news and gold will really fly.


6 posted on 09/09/2009 6:15:19 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: 2banana

Lots of talk worldwide about leaving the dollar. Most recently China, Japn & the UN. Things could be different this time. People like myself are buying & holding for “insurance” purposes. Historically, an ounce of gold remains the best “inflation resistant” instrument. We cannot sustain this MASSIVE debt load. Something’s gotta give somewhere, eventually, IMHO. (read: bottom falls out)


7 posted on 09/09/2009 6:19:49 AM PDT by Beloved Levinite (I have a new name for the occupier of The Oval Office: KING FRAUD! (pronounced King "Faa-raud"))
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To: SeekAndFind
No thanks, I'll continue to invest in something with real value.

Ammo.

8 posted on 09/09/2009 6:20:32 AM PDT by ASA Vet (Everyone signing up after Nov 28, 1997 is a newbie.)
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To: SeekAndFind
". the unprecedented monetary stimulus with which the authorities fended off Great Depression 2 is very likely to lead to a serious inflation problem down the track. And that gold and other real assets will be a profitable way of playing that outcome."

Wishfull thinking, but completely ignoring what happened to gold prices during Great depression # one, especially after Roosevelt's Gold Confiscation order Of April 5, 1933, which was: "An Act to provide relief in the existing national emergency in banking, and for other purposes".

This of course, caused the price of gold to fall to $20.67/oz, which is what the people were paid as they were forced to hand over their gold.

Afterwards, The price of gold from the treasury for international transactions was thereafter raised to $35 an ounce; which is how Roosevelt swindled the American citizens of all their money to pay for his socialist ideas.

Considering the dilema Obama is facing, I wouldn't be suprized if he tried the exact same thing. So if anyone wants to buy gold, consider that the price will be forced down, then it will be stolen from you.

Even if you bury it, it will be useless to you. If caught trying to barter with it, you could go to jail for 10 years, or pay a ten thousand dollar fine. (at least that was the penalty in 1933) And later ther price of gold will fall anyways.

9 posted on 09/09/2009 6:23:24 AM PDT by Nathan Zachary
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To: 2banana
"If you think hyper inflation is coming - buy lots of houses using as much leverage as you can. It is by far the best thing you can do in hyperinflation."

Absolutely right. And there are some real good auctions going on everywhere. You can snap up good houses cheap. Real cheap, 1970's prices in some places.

10 posted on 09/09/2009 6:26:28 AM PDT by Nathan Zachary
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To: Nathan Zachary; CaptainAmiigaf; Mrs. B.S. Roberts
Interesting analysis. And given 0bama's total lack of personal character and total disdain for America and Americans...a very scary analysis.

Keep your powder dry.

11 posted on 09/09/2009 6:30:49 AM PDT by Bloody Sam Roberts (An armed man is a citizen. An unarmed man is a subject.)
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To: Beloved Levinite
Lots of talk worldwide about leaving the dollar

Where are they going at this point?
12 posted on 09/09/2009 6:32:21 AM PDT by allmost
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To: Nathan Zachary
completely ignoring what happened to gold prices during Great depression # one, especially after Roosevelt's Gold Confiscation order Of April 5, 1933, which was: "An Act to provide relief in the existing national emergency in banking, and for other purposes".

You realize that you can actually buy gold today via Exchange Traded Funds traded in our stock markets. For instance GLD is one of the symbols that actually track the price of gold.

Therefore, you don' really have to own the metal physically.

If Obama tries to pull an FDR, it will have international ramifications as these ETF's are not only owned by Americans but by foreigners (even Chinese). I'm not sure if the international community will let him get away with it.
13 posted on 09/09/2009 6:32:55 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: 2banana

Gold will be the next bubble. Humans have an affinity for bubbles, too bad about 90 percent loss money.


14 posted on 09/09/2009 6:33:09 AM PDT by sako shooter (cib&eib)
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To: SeekAndFind
Warning: Gold value governed by "Greater Fool Theory". Holders of Gold clamor for more speculators to come on-board their ship of fools. Eventually, they will hope to find a greater fool than themselves to buy their holdings at a profit. Thus swings the pendulum.

Buy cans of Spam if you truly believe we are at the end times. That currency has value.

15 posted on 09/09/2009 6:33:29 AM PDT by Broker (Reward: $100.00 for the lost book of Islamic Praise Songs.)
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To: Nathan Zachary; 2banana

The issue I have with real estate is that state governments can soak you with property taxes until you are underwater.


16 posted on 09/09/2009 6:34:08 AM PDT by Sarajevo (You're jealous because the voices only talk to me.)
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To: allmost
Lots of talk worldwide about leaving the dollar

Where are they going at this point?


Here's one alternative they're now considering :

UN wants new global currency to replace dollar

Excerpt :

"A number of countries, including China and Russia, have suggested replacing the dollar as the world's reserve currency

In a radical report, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has said the system of currencies and capital rules which binds the world economy is not working properly, and was largely responsible for the financial and economic crises."
17 posted on 09/09/2009 6:36:17 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: sako shooter
Gold will be the next bubble. Humans have an affinity for bubbles, too bad about 90 percent loss money.

Here's the thing I've noticed through the years --- never fall in love with one asset class to a point where you want to hold it forever. MONITOR it and TRADE it via limit and stop orders. GOLD is one such asset class to consider in one's portfolio.
18 posted on 09/09/2009 6:38:25 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: sako shooter

Current Bubble; cash/money market; US Govt. Securities. Best guess, potentially the largest and most explosive bubbles in mankind’s economic history.


19 posted on 09/09/2009 6:38:41 AM PDT by Broker (Reward: $100.00 for the lost book of Islamic Praise Songs.)
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To: 2banana

“2. If you think hyper inflation is coming - buy lots of houses using as much leverage as you can. It is by far the best thing you can do in hyperinflation”

Just don’t do it with an ARM.


20 posted on 09/09/2009 6:38:42 AM PDT by bigcat32
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