Posted on 09/07/2009 9:26:20 PM PDT by Lorianne
For a century, the Sunshine State has been a population magnet. It's perennially one of the fastest-growing states in the nation.
But the unthinkable has happened: Demographers report that Florida's population shrank last year for the first time in more than 60 years.
The population loss comes as a shock to a state where growth is both an industry and a foundation of the economy.
Economic Double Whammy
Boom and bust cycles are nothing new in Florida. Ever since the 1890s, when Henry Flagler extended his railroad down the state's Atlantic coast, Florida's history has been one of economic ups and downs.
Throughout it all, one constant was the state's steady population growth — until now.
Stan Smith, an economist at the University of Florida, says the state's population dropped by 58,000 last year.
He says there are two main factors: The poor economy means there are fewer jobs to attract workers. And there's also that little problem with housing.
"When people have a difficult time selling their homes, as we've seen recently, that makes it difficult for them to move," Smith says. "So people who might otherwise have moved to Florida have either put that off indefinitely, or at least put it off for some period of time."
Out of a total population of 18.3 million, a loss of 58,000 residents might not sound like much. But it's a trend that could cloud the future of places such as St. Lucie County on Florida's Atlantic coast.
County Commissioner Doug Coward notes that just a few years ago, it was one of the fastest-growing counties in the nation.
"At one point, we had about 100-plus thousand homes that were proposed by out-of-town developers — which would nearly double the housing stock for a community which has been in existence for more than 100 years," he says. "And they wanted to accomplish that feat in about three or so [years]. The amount of speculative building and development was just unprecedented."
Today that boom is but a memory. Residential building has ground to a halt. As construction jobs dried up, many people left the area to find work elsewhere. Across the county, several thousand homes now stand vacant.
Empty Schools, Strained State Coffers
The population decline is perhaps most obvious in the schools. What was once Port St. Lucie Elementary now stands vacant and is slated for demolition.
It was one of two schools closed in St. Lucie County last year, in part because of the district's declining enrollment.
Port St. Lucie Principal Glenn Rustay says closing the school was tough for both students and teachers.
"When you work at a school, you put everything into it," he says. "And the teachers put everything into it. You're losing your second home almost."
Many of the students and teachers transferred to another nearby school, Northport K-8, where Rustay is now the principal.
Two years ago, there were 42,000 students in St. Lucie County schools. This year, 36,000 showed on the first day of school, although county officials expect that number to rise as latecomers straggle in.
For the state, county and city governments in Florida, a declining population means a declining tax base. That, combined with the housing collapse, would spell trouble anywhere.
But Florida is a state that built its economy on the promise of growth. It's one of just seven states with no income tax. Instead, the state heavily relies on sales and property tax revenue.
'Some People Believe Florida Is Over As A State'
Even before the construction industry went bust, there was trouble in paradise. Sean Snaith, an economist at the University of Central Florida, notes that as the economy boomed and housing values skyrocketed, the cost of living also climbed out of reach for some. Snaith says that even as Florida's bubble continued to grow, some were leaving for states such as Tennessee in search of a lower cost of living.
A combination of all these factors has led some writers and observers to dub Florida the "Ponzi State" — one now primed for collapse.
"Some people believe Florida is over as a state," economist Smith says. "You see that in headlines. I really don't see it that way."
Smith says Florida's population drop, while attention-getting, is a short-term phenomenon. The factors that have drawn people here for decades, such as the weather and the beaches, will continue to attract newcomers to the state.
And the looming retirement of the baby boom generation is expected to eventually bring back growth with a bang.
But that doesn't mean things are rosy in the Sunshine State. Economists, planners and elected officials such as Coward say Florida needs to take a hard look at itself.
"We simply can't continue business as usual," Coward says. "It's not sustainable. So, it's a learning lesson, and that's the key. Are we going to learn from this, and are we going to change our ways and do better for the future of the state and this country?"
Some tough decisions need to be made, Coward says, on tax policies and diversification of the state's economy, so that Florida can become known for more than oranges, beaches and retirement communities.
ACORN can fix this during the upcoming census.
“ACORN can fix this during the upcoming census.”
You betcha! All them 58,000 will vote.
Housing bubble burst plus influx of liberals in govt. raising taxes
on property owners. Friend of mine owns rental property there and she can’t fill them up like before.
So the county commissioner of a FL county that is getting slammed because of the downturn now says that our current tax structure is not workable any longer.
Of course it isn’t with people the likes of him that want more and more money to spend. These people need to start learning to spend within their means.
And the local college, UCF, now has 54,000 students. I believe I read somewhere that is now the fourth largest college in the US. Yay. More liberal voters. But it does show that Florida isn’t turning away everyone. For all we know that 58,000 population drop was illegals moving out.
Too many illegal aliens causing taxes to skyrocket, wages depressed, quality of life drops etc. Plus we have a flaming RINO governor and spineless RINO’s in the state house.
Florida’s housing bust has good and bad effects. House prices were insane here. A small house in a decent neighborhood near me just sold for $40,000. Two years ago, it would have sold for $100,000. Small business failures are everywhere. I’ve seen entire strip malls that had no tenants. Some of that is bad planning, but I know a fabricator who moved for a 50% rent reduction. Landlords were treating tenants as if they were limitless spigots of money for years in south Florida. Now they have competition. Some of these malls and office parks are going to sell at fire sale prices, and perhaps a new crop of landlords will grasp that sticking it to their customers is bad business.
Florida’s problem, at least in the south, is the distance required to ship anything. A manufacturer that requires full truckloads of goods has a problem here. We’re five hundred miles out of the mainstream. A manufacturer of smaller goods that can be shipped LTL or common carrier could do very well here in this economy.
Add high home owners insurance and you'll have all the reasons I've heard.
http://www.1000friendsofflorida.org/planning/2060.asp
http://www.1000friendsofflorida.org/PUBS/2060/UCFAlternativeFlorida2060.pdf
Florida’s Vision 2060 Master Planning schemes.
The “environmentalists” in Florida were correct from the start, the hockey stick graph for projected population and development growth was completely insane. That billions of dollars and tens of thousands of elites in the state and investors from outside the state bought into the original 2060 plan is a pure example of the hysteria of bubble economies.
If I could find a job there, I’d move to Key West. This is the most relaxing place I’ve found in US.
People are fleeing to states with low property taxes.
Saint Lucie County Commissioner Doug Coward is a disingenuous liar.
He along with the other commissioners have spent taxpayer money like drunk sailors buying crap like the Havert Fenn community center and beautifying roads and oh so many other unnecessary spending in times of recession.
Just raise the mileage rates and keep spending pal.
I don’t know if you’d want to be there in the summer. It’s brutal. When I went there, those damn chickens kept ambushing me.
I was there in the Summer. Yes it’s hot but no worse than the rest of the Southeast! And there’s always water close by to jump into.
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