Polls: Corzine trails GOP rival

The Washington Times ^ | September 2, 2009 | Donald Lambro

[kingattax]

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine appears to be losing support in his bid for a second term against Republican challenger Chris Christie, despite a monthlong barrage of Democratic attack ads against the former U.S. attorney, several independent polls show.

Polls last month had shown that the race for governor was tightening slightly as Mr. Corzine, who is self-financing much of his campaign, unleashed a wave of TV ads accusing Mr. Christie of giving no-bid legal-services contracts to friends and former George W. Bush administration officials, and neglecting to report interest income from a $46,000 personal loan he made to a subordinate in the U.S. attorney's office who has since resigned.

But a Quinnipiac University poll reported Tuesday that Mr. Corzine was now trailing by 10 percentage points (47 percent to 37 percent), with 9 percent for independent candidate Christopher Daggett. An Aug. 11 Quinnipiac poll showed Mr. Christie leading by just six percentage points.

The latest poll also found that 56 percent of those who saw the Corzine ads that criticized Mr. Christie for awarding contracts to people with ties to Mr. Bush considered them unfair, while 36 percent said they raised a legitimate issue. The poll surveyed 1,612 likely voters from Aug. 25-30 with a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points.

[Londo Molari]

They keep forgetting to poll at the cemeteries. They vote 100% democrat.

[RU88]

The incumbant always closes as we get closer to the election. If I were Christie I’d be more concerned with Daggett’s numbers than Corzine’s. 9% is significant for an independent. If that holds up I could very easily see Corzine winning with less than 50% of the vote ala Clinton.

[ScottinVA]

“The incumbent always closes as we get closer to the election.”

And — though some FReepers absolutely insist THIS time is different and Corzine is “toast,” I don’t have confidence in NJ voters. They, like those in PA, have this agonizingly frustrating penchant for submitting to their old habit of voting for the Dem on Election Day, even though pre-election polls might tease us into thinking otherwise. Besides, all Corzine needs to do is be within a couple percentage points at election time; ACORN will handle it from there.

[SmokingJoe]

“They keep forgetting to poll at the cemeteries. They vote 100% democrat.”

Show me even one election, in which the Republican candidate was ahead by as much as 10% in the Quinnipiac polls(or 6.5% in the RCP average), like Christie is, and yet lost in the real election.
There is none. You are way overestimating the ability of the dead to wake up and go and vote, and underestimating the ability of the living to make sure that they vote against an incumbent with very low approval rates, and make sure those votes count.

[SmokingJoe]

” If I were Christie I’d be more concerned with Daggett’s numbers than Corzine’s. 9% is significant for an independent. If that holds up I could very easily see Corzine winning with less than 50% of the vote ala Clinton.”

Explain to me how Corzine wins with less than 50% of the vote, when his RCP average is at a very low 41%, while Christie has an RCP average(even now) of 47.5%.
Clinton won because Perot was at around 18% of the vote, and Clinton himself was regularly ahead of Bush Snr in the polls, Corzine has none of those advantages. He has been consistently behind in the polls all year, and Daggett is not even close to 18%.

[SmokingJoe]

” Besides, all Corzine needs to do is be within a couple percentage points at election time; ACORN will handle it from there.”

As far as I can recall, neither ACORN, nor the dead, nor registered dogs and cats, have ever been able to give the Democratic candidate a win, when that Democratic candidate was trailing by as much 10% in any Quinnipiac poll. It just doesn't happen. Does ACORN commit fraud? Of course. Would 0bama have handily beaten John McCain with or without ACORN fraud? Mcacain was a terrible candidate who campaigned AGINST his own base, by insisting on amnesty for illegals DURING the campiagn, and totally losing his head, and actually stopping his campaign when the financial crisis hit in mid September last year. McCain deserved to lose.
Of course.
Rasmussen polls had 0bama winning by exactly the 7% that he actually won by, so the effect of ACRON must have been really tiny. Right now, Rasmussen has Christie ahead by 8% in New Jersey.