The bond market bottomed in December and the stock market bottomed in March. The Fed balance sheet peaked in April. The real economy (GDP) bottomed early in the 3rd quarter. Unemployment will take another 3-6 months to top out, but the corner is already turned, long since.
In 2 weeks we get the next installment of the Fed's Z.1 data, which will tell us what has happened to US household net worth since the March bottom. I expect to see it come in up $3-5 trillion over the end of 1st quarter level.
The government can still try to pile on giant tax increases at the worst possible time, if the Democrats want to make their political suicide total and rapid. That's about all there is left to worry about domestically. Abroad there is Iran and nobody is doing anything. In 2 years we will all wonder why everyone wasn't fgcused on that, instead of hyperventilating about yet another utterly normal economic cycle.
I switched to bonds a while back.
Regarding your claim that it is done, as I said to people in 2007, let’s compare notes in Spring of 2008. This time I’ll say Spring of 2010.
I’ll admit it is possible I am wrong. Time will tell.