Posted on 08/29/2009 7:05:21 PM PDT by Pan_Yan
[SNIP]
IS THE SITUATION LIKELY TO ESCALATE?
There are concerns that if the fighting intensifies, other members of the alliance could enter the fray and provide a serious challenge to the Myanmar army, resulting in fierce fighting and heightening the risk of a refugee crisis for China.
The Wa are widely regarded as a formidable fighting force, with at least 15,000 armed members, but they are not involved, yet. The Shan State Army, which is outside of the alliance, might also seek to capitalize on the instability and strengthen its own position in the region.
Analysts say a lot is at stake for all groups involved -- China included -- and neither side will want to engage in any kind of protracted conflict. However, any wrong moves by forces on the ground could trigger an all-out war.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
China is building oil and gas pipelines through Myanmar that will supply Yunnan province, relieving pressure on its own oil industry to supply the remote southwestern corner of its territory.
China's overriding concern is a stable Myanmar, and the Yangon regime cannot afford to upset its powerful neighbor because of the economic and diplomatic assistance it provides through trade and through protection in the international political arena.
Interesting. Is Myanmar and China as tight as China and North Korea?
parsy, who has just read about Burma
There are other interested parties as well, since Myanmar sits between India and Thailand. For those who remember their obscure WWII history Burma is not a hospitable place to fight a protracted ground war.
I think China is really rooting for the junta to at least stabilize the situation. But they need the oil. Tough spot for everyone.
I don’t know that the US really has a dog in this fight. A destabilized Burma is probably a good thing for the US at this point. There is a persecuted Christian minority, but the US isn’t likely to provide anything for them.
I agree that this doesn't directly involve any major US interests. But it's one of those little things that can start out small and then involve more and more players. I'm trying to avoid saying 'domino effect' when talking about Southeast Asia.
Myanmar provides the Chinese Navy with access to the Indian Ocean.
Wasn’t it Vinegar Joe who went there and it took forever to get the Burma Road built? And Merrill’s Marauders?
parsy, whose memory is going
You're not the only one who occasionally needs to clean the dust from the shelves. I just read up on both General Stillwell and Merrill's Marauders. What a debacle.
I wonder how the people of Myanmar view their history both during and since British colonialism, especially during WW II. I doubt their collective memories of the Japanese are any more pleasant than the Koreans or Chinese.
Unfortunately, Stallone’s Rambo IV might be the only reason some people even know it’s not called Burma anymore, at least the 20 people who saw it.
I give Stallone credit, which is hard to do, for at least trying to bring the issues in this little corner of the world to light while he was on the interview circuit for that movie.
Wiki has a lot of info. I read Operation Dracula and Admin Box Battle.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_occupation_of_Burma
parsy, who doesn’t get to read as much as he wants
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