In my neighborhood they wouldn't make it to the third home.
You'd be surprised. Don't underestimate the enemy. They could swoop in with large numbers and take every house at once when you least expect it.
Or they could pick up all those who they have learned are more likely to be a threat, and grab everyone individually while you go to the beer store. One at a time, make you all mysteriously vannish. By the time someone figures out whats going on, it's done.