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ARF=Acute respiratory failure

MV=Mechanical ventilation

Note they are basing the model on a 0.5% fatality rate. This is the number the IHT and others have reported Hiroshi Nishiura and his fellow epidemiologists at Utrecht University are about to publish in PLoS. The study is based on US and Canadian deaths. 0.5% would make this flu as deadly as the 1957-58 Asian flu.

1 posted on 08/23/2009 2:17:41 PM PDT by Brugmansian
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To: Brugmansian
"0.5% would make this flu as deadly as the 1957-58 Asian flu. "

I've thought all along that this wasn't something to be trifled with or mocked, in any way. It's certainly deadly serious business, and possible very deadly serious business. Just think what the pandemonium will be if the strain mutates and becomes just incrementally more lethal - say a fatality rate at 1.8% to 2.2%. It would be a disaster.

2 posted on 08/23/2009 2:23:38 PM PDT by OldDeckHand (No Socialized Medicine, No Way, No How, No Time)
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To: Brugmansian

lol what to do?


3 posted on 08/23/2009 2:24:05 PM PDT by dalebert
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To: Brugmansian

how do we protect our families?


4 posted on 08/23/2009 2:25:52 PM PDT by dalebert
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To: Brugmansian
Quick search found this, I thought this sounded familiar.

March 24, 1976: Ford Orders Swine-Flu Shots for All

President Gerald Ford orders a nationwide vaccination program to prevent a swine-flu epidemic. Ford was acting on the advice of medical experts, who believed they were dealing with a virus potentially as deadly as the one that caused the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic

13 posted on 08/23/2009 3:04:35 PM PDT by MrPiper
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To: Brugmansian

In a discussion I read a couple of years ago concerning bird flu, it was stated that any pandemic flu with a high incidence of pneumonia could fairly quickly tie up all the respirator equipment in the US. I believe it said at the time that the US had about 80,000 respirators. - Whatever the number is, all such specialized equipment could be put use, and none be available for later victims with serious respiratory involvement.


14 posted on 08/23/2009 3:04:41 PM PDT by Will88
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To: Brugmansian; OldDeckHand

So, assuming no, or only minor, mutation, a severe spring attack would provide immunity this winter, correct?


28 posted on 08/23/2009 11:09:35 PM PDT by ApplegateRanch (The mob got President Barabbas; America got shafted)
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To: Brugmansian

Not quite as deadly as Obamacare...


31 posted on 08/24/2009 4:47:33 PM PDT by maddog55 (Socialism is communism with fewer re-education camps.)
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