Like with this article, it looks to me like people are betting on whether or not the current ‘recovery’ can make enough steam to get up and over the next hill. One bunch is betting it will and the other is betting it won't. And just like those who bet the horses they are studying past performance, the strength of the contestant and the track condition. Same with poker, but that's more a matter of the skill of the player, which is the same with some pretty sophisticated market players.
Thoughts?
By definition, investing implies risk. So, from that point of view you are absolutely right—it is a form of gambling.
Most investors are in the Market for the long haul. Like most anything, the Market has its ups and downs. Left to itself the Market self-corrects. Thus, if you are patient, over time you will be richer for it.
The problem today is two-fold:
1. The government has injected itself into the process in a massive way. And by doing so, has eroded people’s faith in it. That is to say, The Marxist Onada is very aggressively moving the US from a demand to a command economy—i.e. communism. The terms progressive, liberal, leftist and socialist are only euphemisms for the word communism. I prefer to call it what is than to pretend it is something else. What’s happening right now is that many people are also pretending that Market has not changed since Bush, followed by Onada, went down this bogus “stimulous” route. After nine months absolutely nothing has been stimulated. In fact, Onada’s massive bite into the private sector has only delayed a real recovery. If we continue in this direction the American economy will only become poorer and poorer.
2. The second problem is that the Market has been taken over by pure speculators. They are not interested in the Market’s long term viability. Their only goal is to find ways to enrich themselves instantly. Their main claim to fame is a fast “ENTER” key finger. In other words, it is all about finding “timing” gimmicks in order to make a quick buck.
If you read what passes for financial analysis today, you will find that most of it is gibberish. For example, in my local paper’s financial section on Friday I was told the market went up because the cost of a barrel of petroleum went up.
Now think about that for a minute. We’re already in recession, job losses continue unabated, housing market is still in the toilet, gov’t “stimulus” efforts are sucking trillions out of the productive private sector, deficit is over $3 trillion and growing exponentially and retailers are ecstatic if they do better than their projected losses. At the same time, the cost of Onada’s so-called health care reform hangs over all our heads. Ditto with his latest transfer the wealth gambit—gov’t subsidized apartments (pushing renting not buying now).
Now one could make an argument that higher petroleum prices could lead ultimately to lower prices. In other words the petroleum companies could take the “new” money and invest in infrastructure (open new oil fields (preferably here in US) and bring new refining capacity on line. Thus, increasing supply and thereby causing the price of petroleum products to go down. But the government will not allow that. So we remain dependent on foreign oil.
Bottom line: Given all that I said above, the only thing higher petroleum will generate is higher prices of everything we consume. This in turn will inevitably result in increasing consumer belt tightening, which will negatively affect manufacturing which will lead to the loss of more jobs.
So, if your a responsible invester how could you possibly think that higher petroleum prices will be a good thing over the long haul? Obviously you would not. But, the speculators are in control and they only care about the killing they can make today. Only to that crowd of bandits is higher petroleum prices a good thing.
And the wheel is rigged too - just like in real casinos!
Otoh, if you practice a card-counter’s skills, you can scrape considerable money off the table.
It’s a living!
The “current recovery” doesn’t exist in the first place. Car sales may be up but that is because of the fools rushing out to get “free” money, in the long run it can only make the situation worse. Housing sales are up because of the “free” money, this will help nothing, in the long run it wil make things worse. Unemployment is supposed to have dropped while at the same time many more people lost their jobs and the total number of employed people took a large drop. Give me a break, please! If John McCain were in office would we be hearing anything about a recovery? This is pure propaganda of the worst sort.