This will never happen because we are spending lots of money so we don't go broke.
Posted on 08/23/2009 5:47:56 AM PDT by FromLori
/SARC
At the least those that have either missed the current run up or those that have gone short hope so.
....I don’t put too much stock in in the “Oct Crash” theory....it comes around every year...besides, I’ve never been any good at timing the market....over the years I’ve done best by buying high quality stocks and re-investing the dividends.
Crash to what...it is already in a crashed state!
As Stuart Varney explain, in the 1930’s markets would trend upward, but the economy never grew. any similarities here?
Like with this article, it looks to me like people are betting on whether or not the current ‘recovery’ can make enough steam to get up and over the next hill. One bunch is betting it will and the other is betting it won't. And just like those who bet the horses they are studying past performance, the strength of the contestant and the track condition. Same with poker, but that's more a matter of the skill of the player, which is the same with some pretty sophisticated market players.
Thoughts?
Now imagine both of those get into a crash.
~~Harvard Economic Society, May 17, 1930
We’ll see Dow 10k before we see Dow 8k.
Come on guy, thats an easy forecast.
considering that 10k is less than 5% away, we could see that in one week.
8K would be another disaster.
I see little to floor the upside other than money has to go somewhere.
It’s not a matter of “if” anymore it’s a matter of when.
Not to worry: Congress will pass a version of “Cash-for-Clunkers” for distressed stocks.
I remember the day October the 17th 1987 Red Poling head of Ford Motor Company sold 57000 shares of Ford Stock at $101/share and on October 19,1987 the market crashed. Not saying he caused it but I’m still looking for his Broker I want to invest with him.
Many stock market crashes come in the Autumn. It’s a seasonal thing. The good times of summer are over and the freezing winter is coming.
People ask themselves — “Did I put away enough of summer’s bounty to survive the winter? Was I able to harvest in the fall to get through winter?” — This is hardwired into all people from cold climates even if they are through circumstance living in Florida
People whose ancestors were from hot climates do not have this memtality unless it is learned
This will never happen because we are spending lots of money so we don't go broke.
Crashes happen when all the stars align for it to happen:
High P/E ratios
Tight Credit and rapidly rising interest rates
Geo-political issues
The S&P 500 P/E is now about 16.8, in the mid-range of the historical valuations. And that is including the reduced earnings recently reported
While retail and small business bank credit is tight, treasury rates are low, so the competition for investor funds from governments is small
The geo-political issues are moving in favor of the conservative position as the public has rebelled against this government.
A correction is possible but the amount of money out there for investing is enormous. Traditionally, stocks have done well when inflation is trending upward.
Another point, there has been a well-documented link over the last 80 years between money supply and stock prices with a one year lag. Last year's rapid increase in the money supply, combined with the fall of Obama’s poll numbers, is driving this rally.
And yes, I do invest client money for a living, if any of you are wondering.
Always wondered when they would bring back the steel penny looks like it will be in black October.
Buy on the first of Nov and sell the last day of March. Do it faithfully every year and capture more of the gains and fewer of the losses over time.
By definition, investing implies risk. So, from that point of view you are absolutely right—it is a form of gambling.
Most investors are in the Market for the long haul. Like most anything, the Market has its ups and downs. Left to itself the Market self-corrects. Thus, if you are patient, over time you will be richer for it.
The problem today is two-fold:
1. The government has injected itself into the process in a massive way. And by doing so, has eroded people’s faith in it. That is to say, The Marxist Onada is very aggressively moving the US from a demand to a command economy—i.e. communism. The terms progressive, liberal, leftist and socialist are only euphemisms for the word communism. I prefer to call it what is than to pretend it is something else. What’s happening right now is that many people are also pretending that Market has not changed since Bush, followed by Onada, went down this bogus “stimulous” route. After nine months absolutely nothing has been stimulated. In fact, Onada’s massive bite into the private sector has only delayed a real recovery. If we continue in this direction the American economy will only become poorer and poorer.
2. The second problem is that the Market has been taken over by pure speculators. They are not interested in the Market’s long term viability. Their only goal is to find ways to enrich themselves instantly. Their main claim to fame is a fast “ENTER” key finger. In other words, it is all about finding “timing” gimmicks in order to make a quick buck.
If you read what passes for financial analysis today, you will find that most of it is gibberish. For example, in my local paper’s financial section on Friday I was told the market went up because the cost of a barrel of petroleum went up.
Now think about that for a minute. We’re already in recession, job losses continue unabated, housing market is still in the toilet, gov’t “stimulus” efforts are sucking trillions out of the productive private sector, deficit is over $3 trillion and growing exponentially and retailers are ecstatic if they do better than their projected losses. At the same time, the cost of Onada’s so-called health care reform hangs over all our heads. Ditto with his latest transfer the wealth gambit—gov’t subsidized apartments (pushing renting not buying now).
Now one could make an argument that higher petroleum prices could lead ultimately to lower prices. In other words the petroleum companies could take the “new” money and invest in infrastructure (open new oil fields (preferably here in US) and bring new refining capacity on line. Thus, increasing supply and thereby causing the price of petroleum products to go down. But the government will not allow that. So we remain dependent on foreign oil.
Bottom line: Given all that I said above, the only thing higher petroleum will generate is higher prices of everything we consume. This in turn will inevitably result in increasing consumer belt tightening, which will negatively affect manufacturing which will lead to the loss of more jobs.
So, if your a responsible invester how could you possibly think that higher petroleum prices will be a good thing over the long haul? Obviously you would not. But, the speculators are in control and they only care about the killing they can make today. Only to that crowd of bandits is higher petroleum prices a good thing.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.