Save that DOI resolver link. It works like a charm for 10.1126/science.1175570
Here’s the flaw, IMHO, though with comparing 1918 and 1957 flu mortality, to establish guidelines for today.
In 1957 (and 1918, of course) kids weren’t in daycare before they went to school, and mom’s didn’t work.
So it seems to me that the demographics of those years wouldn’t really be an accurate model for the culture we find ourselves in today, where babies and toddlers are, technically, “in school”...in the form of daycare because many mom’s are no longer stay at home caregivers.