Failing Nations: Why things fall apart

National Geographic Magazine, September 2009 Issue ^ | Published September 2009 | Robert Draper

[Bean Counter]

It can happen after one fateful event—a civil war, natural disaster, or brutal takeover—or insinuate itself gradually, like a cancer that eats away at a country for decades. But when a nation is failing, you see it in the eyes of its people.

Over a billion people live in countries in danger of collapse. Some leaders lose control over their territory and cling to their capitals while warlords rule the provinces. Many governments are unable or unwilling to provide the most basic of services. Most are hobbled by corruption and environmental degradation. Such unstable states are dangers not just to themselves but also to the whole world. They incubate terrorism, criminal organizations, and political extremism—because when your country is falling apart around you, any way out can seem like a good way out.

Geography can make a country more vulnerable to instability. Just finding itself in a bad neighborhood puts a country at risk; the war in Iraq, for instance, sent a flood of refugees into neighboring Syria. Crowded nations with huge populations, like Bangladesh, face special challenges. But so do vast countries like Chad, whose very size defeats infrastructure. Landlocked nations with poor soil and little water struggle for self-sufficiency. Yet countries rich in natural resources, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, don't always come out ahead. In what is called the resource curse, abundant oil or diamonds can breed competition among elites for control of those lucrative assets.

Historical and cultural tensions can dog nations as well. Nowhere is this more evident than in Africa, home to the top five countries in this year's Failed States Index, compiled annually by the Fund for Peace. "The colonial drawing of arbitrary borders across ethnic and even topographic lines created artificial states," says the Fund's president, Pauline H. Baker. Such regimes often devote more energy to consolidating authority than to fostering national identities and robust government institutions.

One African country that has prevailed over its colonial legacy is Senegal. "It's benefited from enlightened leadership," says Baker. Indeed, the most important factor for ensuring a state's stability is good governance, says Davidson College political scientist Ken Menkhaus. Establishing the rule of law, with institutions to support it, "allows for a predictable investment climate and discourages the rise of armed insurgencies."

Assistance from organizations like the World Bank and United Nations has a mixed record of staving off failure. The most dramatic success stories are countries like India and South Africa that reformed themselves from within. As the United States' recent experiences in "nation building" illustrate, promoting political stability with outside military intervention is far from easy. Iraq and Afghanistan currently rank as the sixth and seventh most precarious states on the planet.

Then there is Somalia, a country whose geog­raphy, history, and clan dynamics give it the grim distinction of topping the index for two years in a row. Beyond Somalia, there's little agreement on what a high score on the index really means for a country's future. Colombia, for example, lacks control over parts of its territory. So, has Colombia failed? The bloody aftermath of Kenya's 2007 elections caused the country to go from 26th to 14th in this year's index. But does this backslide foretell failure for Kenya, with its vibrant entrepreneurial class?

Scholars caution against judgment. University of Hawaii professor Tarcisius Kabutaulaka says it's easy to forget that many countries have had troubled histories. "The United States was built out of chaos, out of civil war. And now we expect the rest of the world to adopt our institutions but do it without violence in a short period of time."

In the end, the question of whether a country is failing may best be answered by its own people. If their eyes say "we have been deserted," the verdict has been rendered. 

[Bean Counter]

"The 2009 Failed States Index ranks Somalia highest for the second year in a row. Issued since 2005 by the Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy Magazine, the index weighs 12 political, economic, and social factors to calculate a nation's instability and focus world attention where support is needed."

In order by Continent, this year's "winners" are:

AFRICA, Most at risk:

Somalia
Zimbabwe
Sudan
Chad
The Congo

In ASIA, Most at risk:

Afghanistan
Pakistan
Myanmar (Burma)
North Korea
Bangladesh

In the MIDDLE EAST, most at risk:

Iraq
Yemen
Lebanon
Iran
Syria

In THE AMERICAS, most at risk

Haiti
Columbia
Bolivia
Nicaraugua
Ecuador

(Least at risk: Canada (!!)

In AUSTRALIA/OCEANIA, most at risk

Solomon Islands
Papua, New Guinea
Fiji Islands
Micronesia
Samoa

In EUROPE, most at risk

Maldova
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Belarus
Russia
Serbia



5...4...3...2...1...INCOMING!!!!!!!!!!!!

[GeronL]

If health care and cap n trade pass, add the USA to the list

[Ozone34]

When the majority of citizens prefer to eat mounds of yam foo-foo as their principle starch, the end is near...

[ghost of nixon]

yes - by Nat’l Geographic / U.N. standards, Venezuela and Cuba are more “successful” states than Columbia. I read this story yesterday and was appalled.

[Uncle Ike]

In ASIA, Most at risk:

Afghanistan

(..........)

In the MIDDLE EAST, most at risk:

Iraq

(...........)

Hmmmmmmm...

What do Afghanistan and Iraq have in common???

No bias here - move along, folks.....

[GonzoGOP]

Over a billion people live in countries in danger of collapse

300 million here in the US alone. :)

[Texas Fossil]

Adversity employs great talents; prosperity renders them useless and carries the inept, the corrupted wealthy and the wicked to the top

May they bear in mind that virtue often contains the seeds of tyranny

May they bear in mind that it is neither gold nor even a multitude of arms that sustains a state but its morals

May each of them keep in his house, in a corner of this field, next to his workbench, next to his plow, his gun, his sword, and his bayonet

May they all be soldiers

May they bear in mind that in circumstances where deliberation is possible, the advice of old men is good but that in moments of crisis youth is generally better informed that its elders

Denis Diderot

Apostrophe to the Insurgents, 1782

[hoosier hick]

Reading this piece, I couldn’t help wondering if NGS isn’t engaging in some sort of metaphorical lecturing of the US....

hh

[theDentist]

Why things fall apart

Because the center does not hold. -Yeats, I think.

[BertWheeler]

Truth is, we better start peeling back the lecherousness of all forms of government and start encouraging self-reliance again or we’ll fail.

[bayouranger]

University of Hawaii professor Tarcisius Kabutaulaka says it’s easy to forget that many countries have had troubled histories. “The United States was built out of chaos, out of civil war. And now we expect the rest of the world to adopt our institutions but do it without violence in a short period of time.”

Thomas Chittum has been saying this for some time in his book, CWII.

America was born in blood. America suckled on blood. America gorged on blood and grew into a giant, and America will drown in blood. This is the spectre that is haunting America,the spectre of Civil War II, a second civil war that will shatter America into several new
ethnically-based nations. Many will denounce this truth as racist and as a call to violence.It is neither. Rather, it is the result of an objective examination of the historic, demographic,political, economic, and military developments that are relentlessly propelling America towards a second civil war. Simply and directly put, America will explode in tribal warfare in our lifetime and shatter into several new ethnically-based nations.

Read this:

http://www.timebomb2000.com/misc/CWII.pdf

[the invisib1e hand]

gee how timely.

Hillary tells Planned Parenthood the cause of national decline is "infant mortality" and the cure is "reproductive health."(scroll a bit to the youtubes).

Imagine that.

[HiTech RedNeck]

The modern trend is cold wars and crime.

[Waco]

90 percent of the nations in the world could solve 90 percent of their ‘’problems’’ if their ‘’leaders’’ would allow it.

[elpinta]

“...when a nation is failing, you see it in the eyes of its people.”

Those that have traveled through such nations can attest to that; last trip to So. America I observed it, it is very sad indeed.

[Albion Wilde]

The Second Coming

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

— William Butler Yeats

[BenLurkin]

“The United States was built out of chaos”

Wrong. Society was very stable in all the 13 colonies. Their transition to sovereignty was not at all difficult.

The establishment of a Federal government took a little time since our founders knew that centralized government is intrinsically dangerous to both the sovereignty of the States and the liberty of the populace.

Fortunately for us, our founders had a healthy society which sustained our nation for almost two centuries. Only in the last five decades has our society degraded to the point that our Republic failed.

[Oldpuppymax]

A typically clueless, liberal author who thinks far more of GOVERNMENT than he does of FREEDOM and individual liberty.

[r9etb]

The most dramatic success stories are countries like India and South Africa that reformed themselves from within.

I'm not so sure about South Africa, which appears to be well along the Zimbabwe trail.

To call South Africa a "success" requires one to measure success according (liberal) Western racial sensibilities. Much the same way, in fact, that "success" was measured in Zimbabwe not long after Mugabe came into power.

[r9etb]

by Nat’l Geographic / U.N. standards, Venezuela and Cuba are more “successful” states than Columbia. I read this story yesterday and was appalled.

For a state to be "successful" does not require that state to be good. NG's primary criterion for "success" appears to be political stability and the distance of a given government from imminent collapse. And, really, that's not an unreasonable definition.

By that standard, Venezuela and Cuba really are "more successful" than Columbia.