How do you know if it is a raindrop or bird pee?
Context.
The article admits that the US tracking systems recognized the missiles as soon as they were launched.
The article claims that the US intelligence community was taken by surprise because they either weren't expecting a launch in that area, or that they didn't even know the Russian subs were there, or both.
I think we can all agree, with the Russian 'propaganda' outlet on the former, that the US detection technology worked. Why lie about that?
But having seen what happened on 9/11, I have no fantasies that the intelligence community at the CIA/NSA/DIA are necessarily some James-Bond-like omniscient superheroes either.
If the DoD admitted that our chase subs had been diverted away from the area by the CinC to do scientific research on Whale Sounds instead of monitoring Russian activity, would any of us be surprised?
I'm certain that the Navy knows, but they'll never say what they know. The entire Arctic Ocean might be mined for all we know. Subs under ice are an old defense issue.