Here’s National Journal’s latest analysis on which 15 House seats are most likely to change parties in 2010. Election junkies will have much to look at.
Bart Gordon in Tennessee is extremely vulnerable. He voted for Cap and Trade and is siding with Pelosi on some of the ObamaCare.
1. Louisiana-02 Anh (Joseph) Cao (R)
2. Delaware-At Large Michael Castle (R)
3. Illinois-10 Open Seat
4. Pennsylvania-06 Open Seat
5. Virginia-05 Tom Perriello (D)
6. New Mexico-02 Harry Teague (D)
7. Alabama-02 Bobby Bright (D)
8. Idaho-01 Walt Minnick (D)
9. Florida-08 Alan Grayson (D)
10. Maryland-01 Frank Kratovil (D)
11. New York-23 Special Election
12. Ohio-01 Steve Driehaus (D)
13. Colorado-04 Betsy Markey (D)
14. Ohio-15 Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
15. (tie) Washington-08 Dave Reichert (R)
15. (tie) Mississippi-01 Travis Childers (D)
I agree with Ahn Cao as being highly endandgered. He won solely because of William Jefferson’s corruption.
Next year, I suspect that the black ledership in that district will try to choose one (maybe two) top-notch candidates to challenge Cao.
Short of a knock-down dragout battle royale between the two leading Dems causing bitter feelings, I don’t see Cao as being able to win re-election.
If I were Cao, I’d look at my election as similiar to that of Michael Flanagan beating Dan Rostenkowski back in 1994. Basically, enjoy your time in Congress because it’ll be a short one.
I notice they didn’t list Tim Walberg’s old Michigan seat. Is that because he’s running again? I would like to know our chances there if anyone has any thoughts.
I’d like to see their top 100.