Not exactly, the 16 seat,(they have two tied at 15) are 6 GOP seats, including the 4 most at risk according to them, and 10 Dim seats.
The two open seats are open because a GOP Congressman has decided to run for another office. The special election winner is because a GOP Congressman was appointed Army secretary by Obama. So who knows if this seat will be on the list after the special election.
I missed the tie, but the rest I didn't automatically consider the open seats or special election as Republican like you did. With the PA race, considering ACORN and Philly's ability to engage freely in election fraud without any concern for being caught, I'd be inclined to write that one off. But in this climate, perhaps not.
.The sub-title reads: "The Hotline's Tim Sahd assesses which House seats are most likely to switch party control in 2010." So if his predictions hold, Republicans gain seats. But again, I wouldn't put money on anyone being safe this election cycle. I'm looking forward to September 12. The "tea party" rallies, if they turn out to be massive protests, could throw everything into turmoil. I certainly hope so!
1. Louisiana-02 Anh (Joseph) Cao (R)
2. Delaware-At Large Michael Castle (R)
3. Illinois-10 Open Seat
4. Pennsylvania-06 Open Seat
5. Virginia-05 Tom Perriello (D)
6. New Mexico-02 Harry Teague (D)
7. Alabama-02 Bobby Bright (D)
8. Idaho-01 Walt Minnick (D)
9. Florida-08 Alan Grayson (D)
10. Maryland-01 Frank Kratovil (D)
11. New York-23 Special Election
12. Ohio-01 Steve Driehaus (D)
13. Colorado-04 Betsy Markey (D)
14. Ohio-15 Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
15. (tie) Washington-08 Dave Reichert (R)
15. (tie) Mississippi-01 Travis Childers (D)
I "hope" that we can make some "change" in the make up of Congress this election cycle. It all depends on if this current citizen activism, anger with Washington and overall unrest in the streets can be sustained and maintained.
I pray that we can make big gains in 2010 or things will most likely get really ugly.